All Eyes on Delta, Lagos, Oyo, Cross River, Akwa Ibom
By AMOS ESELE with reports from AYO ESAN, UKANDI ODEY, SAMPSON UHUEGBU and SUNDAY OGBU
Some state governors are having sleepless nights and marching on slippery ground to the upcoming March 11 Governorship and House of Assembly Elections, following last week’s unexpected outcome of the Presidential and National Assembly poll in many states, THEWILL has learnt.
States that were previously believed to be traditional no-go areas for rival political parties witnessed an unprecedented upset when the results, amid disruptions, were released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) after polling last Sunday through Wednesday.
Lagos State was one big example where the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), now President-elect Bola Tinubu, had been holding sway since his time as Governor of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007.
Labour Party’s candidate in the presidential election, Peter Obi, pulled a shocking first-ever overwhelming victory in the state with popular votes of 582,454 against Tinubu’s 572,606 votes, although the latter was victorious in eight out of 20 local government areas.
Plateau, another APC governed state, fell to LP where Obi scored 466, 272 votes while Tinubu got 307, 195 votes and the PDP’s Atiku scored 243, 808 votes.
Nasarawa, the home-state of the National Chairman of the governing APC, Abdullahi Adamu, also fell to the LP. The party got 191,361 votes to 172,922 votes for APC and 147, 093 to PDP.
Understandably, the five states in the South-East geo-political zones where Obi comes from, namely Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo, were too ripe for plucking as LP won in all of them almost by 100 per cent. Two of the states in the geo-political zone, Anambra and Imo, are among the seven states in the country that are scheduled for off-season elections. The others are Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Kogi, Ondo and Osun States.
Another aspect of this governorship challenge is currently playing out in Oyo State. There, Governor Seyi Makinde, one of the aggrieved G-5 governors of the PDP who failed to support the party’s presidential candidate but openly showed his preference for Tinubu when the latter paid him a courtesy visit during electioneering, is facing the battle of his life for a second term in office. Because of this open support for Tinubu, his party expectedly lost its three senatorial seats in the state to the APC and eight out of 12 seats in the House of Representatives that were previously in the PDP’s grasp. Now the losers and many members of the party are baying for the governor’s blood, vowing not to support his re-election bid on March 11.
Makinde’s example is a classic case of history repeating itself, yet providing no lesson for the participants. In 2019, when as a greenhorn, he ran for and won the governorship election in Oyo on the ticket of PDP, he did so on the resounding victory of Atiku in the state.
As presidential candidate of the PDP in that year’s election, Atiku had out-shined the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari in Oyo. The performance gave politicians and power brokers in the state a platform to further their ambition. Led by a former governor of the state, Alao Akala, the stakeholders who were formerly from the PDP family but had splintered into rival parties and camps in the state decided to come together and give their support to Makinde, in the event that their support would enable them to seize control of the structure and power in the state from the Abiola Ajimobi-led APC government. Makinde emerged the winner of the election.
Now his romance with Tinubu and the loss suffered by members of the National Assembly in his party, some PDP leaders in Oyo are looking to team up with his rival to work against his second-term bid.
With these victories by the LP that just emerged on the political scene long monopolised by the PDP and APC, many state governors are said to be sitting on edge and waiting anxiously for March 11 to blow over.
ROADBLOCKS ON THE WAY
Voter apathy, already a source of concern given that a little over 22 million out of 87 eligible million voters voted in last week’s poll, is one major challenge that may make or mar the governorship ambitions of contestants on March 11, according to the THEWILL investigation.
Many voters are beginning to fear that their votes may not count, considering the shoddy and controversial manner by which INEC collated the results of last week’s presidential election in clear violation of the provisions of the Electoral Act, 2022, which supports electronic transfer of results from the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to the Commission’s election portal.
The electorate have gone back to their pre-2023 stand on lack of confidence in INEC and the electoral process. A case in point, which symbolises the depth of voter apathy is found in popular slogans currently making the rounds in the South-East. “Let them eat their March 11,” is what many voters whose views were sampled by this newspaper are saying. A double-edged sword, apathy has a way of giving a field day to the enemy when loyal supporters of a preferred candidate stay away from elections.
HOW THEY STAND
LAGOS: APC/LP/PDP
The state is too close to call considering the outcome of the presidential election where the Labour Party shocked the ruling APC and pundits to clinch victory.
Governor Babjide Sanwo-Olu is taking nothing for granted, although his chances have been brightened by his political godfather, Tinubu’s victory in last Saturday’s presidential election. But with the BVAS, there may be no cast iron certainty. Joe Igbokwe, Special Adviser for Drainage and Water Resources to Sanwo-Olu, maintained that the governor would clinch the governorship election in the state convincingly. He told THEWILL on Friday night that the Igbo in Lagos have been well mobilised to vote for Sanwo-Olu, but dismissed the notion that the same ethnic group had swung the vote in Obi’s favour at the presidential poll.
“Don’t look at what happened at the presidential poll. It was a combination of factors that had no ethnic bias. We are working seriously towards Governor Sanwo-Olu’s victory,” Igbokwe said.
The LP candidate, the youthful Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour may carry the day if the popular Obidient Movement rallies and shows up to vote.
Another candidate to watch is the PDP’s Olajide Adediran, aka, Jandor.
OYO: PDP/APC
Given the background to political alignment in Oyo, Governor Seyi Makinde faces a tough hurdle as the APC governorship candidate, Senator Folarin, has been strengthened by Tinubu and APC’s victories at the presidential and national assembly polls, winning all three senatorial districts in the state and eight seats in the House of Reps.
On Thursday about 190,000 supporters of the PDP in the state declared their support for Folarin under the aegis of the PDP Vanguard and made this known in a statement on their official Twitter account @pdpvanguard last Wednesday.
The statement read: “It is essential that every eligible voter in Oyo State exercises his right to vote. The importance of this cannot be overstated, as every single vote counts and can make a significant difference in the outcome of the election.
“Folarin is the answer!”
But on Friday, a pro-Bola Tinubu group pledged its support for Makinde, stating that it had 320,000 supporters to work for his victory at the coming governorship poll.
OGUN: APC
Although former Governor Ibikunle Amosun is supporting Dr Olubiyi Otegbeye of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) the incumbent Governor Dapo Abiodun looks set to return for a second term, courtesy of the massive support from all stakeholders in the state, including the traditional council of chiefs, business and corporate interests in the state.
ABIA: LP/PDP
A traditional stronghold of the PDP, the almost 100 per cent performance of Obi during the presidential election has given a boost to the LP. It is going to be a straight fight if its apathetic supporters, still sulking from the disappointing outcome of the presidential election, decide to vote.
EBONYI: APC
The pre-election violence allegedly unleashed by functionaries of the APC-controlled Ebonyi State Government has cowed the party’s rivals and created fear among the electorate in the state. This may create an atmosphere of uncertainty that the APC would exploit to its advantage.
ENUGU: PDP/LP/APGA
PDP is banking on its past glory as the only party in Enugu State for 23 years, but Obi’s triumph at the presidential poll in the state has put LP on the track of possible victory. Lurking dangerously around and ready to pounce is former Minister for Information, Frank Nweke Jr. who is running on the platform of APGA.
AKWA IBOM: PDP/APC
The APC candidate, Obong Akanimo Udofia is frontally taking on Pastor Umo Eno and the PDP, the party that has governed the state since 1999. The victory of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu in the Presidential election and the triumph of Senator Godswill Akpabio in the Akwa Ibom North West Senatorial District poll held on February 25, 2023, has energized the APC base. Can the party pull out an upset?
CROSS RIVER: APC/ PDP/LP
Senator Bassey Otu of the APC, Professor Sandy Eno of the PDP and Ernest Jose, the LP candidate are the frontline candidates in the state’s governorship election. Peter Obi’s victory in the Presidential election in the state has put the LP in contention. THEWILL however believes it will narrow to a two-horse race (APC vs PDP) by March 11, 2023.
DELTA: PDP/APC/LP
The popularity of the LP in the state, as reflected in Obi’s commanding performance at the presidential poll has put the party in a hot contest with the PDP and APC. Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege is the candidate of the APC, while Speaker, House of Assembly, Sheriff Oborevwori is the PDP candidate. Ken Pela, the dark horse in the race, represents the LP.
PDP stakeholders who supported the LP in the presidential election because of their dislike of Governor Ifeanyi Okowa are closing ranks to save the party from another humiliation in the poll. The contest is however too close to call as at the time of writing.
RIVERS: PDP/APC/LP
Siminalayi Fubara, the candidate of the ruling PDP is the frontrunner because of the dominance and hostility of Governor Nyesom Wike. However, Tonye Cole of the APC and Beatrice Itubo, LP, may swing an upset with the correct use of BVAS and electronic transmission of results at the polling units.
PLATEAU: LP/PDP/APC
The Labour Party Governorship candidate, Dr. Patrick Dakum, is hoping the winning streak of his party in the presidential election in the state would continue and give him victory, but the PDP candidate, Barrister Caleb Mutsfwang, is hopeful on the agreement reached by PDP leaders in the state that while they vote Peter Obi, the LP presidential candidate in last Saturday’s election, the PDP would be voted for in the governorship poll. Dr. Nentawe Yilwatda of the APC is fighting to retain the state for the party.
KADUNA: PDP
The two top contenders in the forthcoming governorship election in Kaduna State are the APC candidate, Senator Uba Sani and PDP’s Isah Ashiru. The PDP won the presidential election beating the APC by over 150, 000 votes.
KANO: NNPP
The governorship election in Kano State will be a close contest between the NNPP and the ruling APC. It may be a close race between Kabir-Yusuf of the NNPP and Nasiru Gawuna of the All Progressives Congress (APC). However, Abba Kabir-Yusuf of the NNPP is the most favoured to win the election.
In the last presidential election, the NNPP led by Rabiu Kwankwaso recorded a landslide win and may consolidate by winning the governorship election.
About the Author
Amos Esele is the Deputy Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
