September 06, (THEWILL) — The headlines say it all. Since Wednesday, August 19, 2026, the official kick-off of the presidential and National Assembly campaigns, and with the approaching September 9, 2026, electioneering date for the governorship and assembly candidates, three major political parties continue to dominate the polity in three vital areas: Issues, personality, and mobilisation.
These considerations, according to THEWILL research, keep the three major political parties and their candidates in constant public view and assessment, as well as offer the electorate alternatives in the upcoming general election in 2027. The parties are the governing All Progressives Congress, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Remarkably, the presidential candidates of these three parties, namely incumbent President Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, squared off in the 2023 general poll, though under different platforms for Abubakar and Obi. Abubakar was the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, while Obi ran on the platform of the Labour Party, LP.
Apart from the change in platform for the duo, the political landscape has also altered drastically for all the parties due to economic and social issues, particularly insecurity, economic hardship, social and political fragmentation in the face of an increasing number of Nigerians consuming shared views on various social media platforms.
Nonetheless, numbers still matter. The numbers matter for grassroots mobilisation, sustained political presence and structured alignment across social strata.
This is where the APC is unrivalled. It has 31 governors, 242 out of 360 House of Representatives members, 88 out of 103 senators, and a significant number of local government chairmen nationwide.
In sharp contrast, the ADC has nine senators and 29 reps; the NDC has four senators and 17 reps. None of them has an incumbent governor. But what the ADC and NDC lack in numerical strength, they are making up for in the personality of their presidential candidates as choices in the face of the social and economic pressures staring Nigerians in the face.
According to THEWILL checks, these issues are currently determining the strengths and weaknesses of the three major parties in the six geo-political zones in the country.
SOUTHWEST ZONE
As the zone of incumbent President Tinubu, the APC maintains a comfortable presence, lead, and strength, with the NDC and ADC coming in the rear, respectively.
Two out of the six states are under the control of the Accord Party and the Allied Peoples Party (APM in Osun and Oyo, but the APC still has a formidable presence because it has once held sway in both states.
The major weakness here is that the zone is home to major urban centres with a healthy mix of social media-savvy Nigerians who can properly contextualise and frame the ongoing economic hardship in the country. The demography that generally favours the youth population nationwide is very active in this zone.
Obi, currently the candidate of the NDC, who won a majority of the votes in Lagos state in the 2023 general poll, is still seen as the symbol of opposition in the metro areas of the region. Beyond Lagos, however, the NDC and ADC, would find it hard to hold any significant ground in the zone.
NORTH-WEST ZONE
First of all, the APC is the ruling party in all the states in the North-West Zone, comprising Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi States. The NDC and ADC are relatively new in the Zone. They are just taking root.
However, the APC is most challenged in Kano State, being the stronghold of the NDC because of the former Governor Rabi’u Kwankwaso factor, Kwankwaso being the running mate of Peter Obi on the NDC presidential ticket. So, Abba Kabir Yusuf, the APC governorship candidate in the state, and President Tinubu will surely have a good run for their money, come 2027.
In Jigawa State, the ADC is the biggest challenger, because of the Sabo Nakudu and Aminu Ringim factor. Nakudu, the ADC governorship candidate, and his running mate, Ringim, are very popular. They are likely going to give Governor Umar Namadi of the APC a tough time in his quest for a second term. NDC may also make some impact there because of the Kwankwaso factor.
In Kaduna State, the ADC is strong because of the Nasiru El-Rufa’i factor and that of Isa Ashiru, the ADC governorship candidate in that state.
The NDC has followership here, but they are not as strong as that of the APC and ADC. It is a similar situation in Kebbi State where former Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, is putting a strong showing as the ADC governorship candidate. He is likely going to give the APC a tough challenge there. Not much is heard about the NDC here.
In Katsina State, the ADC, with its strong governorship candidate, Ahmad Babba Kaita, is going to cause a stir. Kaita, a former Senator, has a large following in the Katsina North and Katsina Central Senatorial districts. So, the ADC is posing a serious challenge to APC here, more so, because of the Atiku Abubakar factor, combined with the strength of the late Gen. Shehu Musa Yar’adua political dynasty.
The NDC is also believed to be impactful here, because of the Kwankwaso factor. In Sokoto and Zamfara States, however, the APC is most likely going to win convincingly, as both the ADC and the NDC are believed not to have much strength to pose a serious challenge.
In Sokoto State, Senator Aliyu Wamakko is holding sway just as Governor Dauda Lawal and Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle, once confirmed political rivals, have set aside their differences and are fencing other parties out of Zamfara State.
The recent appointment of former governor of the state and senator representing Zamfara West at the National Assembly, Senator Abdulaziz Abubakar Yari, as the Director General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council has boosted the chances of the party in the zone.
THEWILL learnt that the ADC will most likely have a very strong showing in the North-West in the upcoming presidential election because of the Atiku Abubakar factor. Atiku is seen as the candidate to beat in the zone during the presidential poll.
SOUTHEAST ZONE
Since the 2023 poll, when Obi swept the votes in this zone, the political landscape in the southeast has changed in the past three years with the emergence of prominent personalities and the dominance of a resurgent APC in four of the five states in the zone.
However, in Abia, the Labour Party is strong due to the development strides of Governor Alex Otti. Despite the presence of the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives in Abia State, Hon. Benjamin Kalu, and other heavyweight politicians like former Governor and now Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, the APC is still finding its footing in God’s Own State.
The reason for this is not far-fetched. Otti has been quite amazing in his provision of infrastructural projects since he assumed office. Thus, Abia is LP all through. It remains to be seen if Otti, who openly supports President Tinubu, can sway Abia people to vote for him on January 16, 2027. Abia, like most southeast states, is anti-APC and pro-NDC, because of Obi.
However, Anambra is challenging for the three major parties: There is something deeply unique about the state. The governors who have successively governed the state on the platform of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, normally offer support to the ruling party at the centre.
For instance, when Obi was governor under APGA, he supported Jonathan’s PDP; His successor, Willie Obiano, supported Buhari’s APC; and Governor Charles Soludo, also of APGA, has been openly supporting President Tinubu’s APC for the past year.
Therefore, Anambra will be a battlefield for APC and NDC. In Ebonyi, the influence of former Governor David Umahi, now Minister of Works, is significant and could help improve his party’s performance in the presidential poll. The party could improve from the mediocre 16.44 per cent it polled in the 2023 race. The reason is that the opposition in the state is divided.
One state in the South-East that votes traditionally in every election cycle is Enugu State. Since the days of Dr. Chimaraoke Nnamani, between 1999 and 2007, Enugu has maintained the tradition of choosing candidates based on party bend and 2027 may not be different.
Although Governor Peter Mbah was well commended in his first two years for providing quality leadership, he is now chided for practically doing nothing since he moved to the APC. Enugu is not an APC enclave. The Obi wave will surely be felt here and it may be monumental. NDC is strong here.
Imo is obviously the most sophisticated state in the zone. Imo voters still believe that the state is not APC in DNA despite electing the current governor, Hope Uzodinma on the platform of the APC. The NDC is expected to win in the state but the ADC and APC will get sizeable votes too.
The influence of former governor, Rt. Hon. Emeka Ihedioha, will be significantly felt as his Rebuild Imo Movement is the biggest grassroots political organisation in the state, a plus for ADC, though the APC has men with unlimited bags of money. Uzodimma is a tough political weight for rivals to handle.
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NORTHEAST ZONE
The Thursday, September 3, 2026 attack of the APC governorship candidate, Usman Gubio, by Boko Haram terrorists is said to have shaken the party to its roots. Though the candidate escaped the ambush unhurt, politicians are factoring the incident in the calculation of their chances in the upcoming polls. Still, the APC has been able to maintain dominance in the zone through elite consensus engineered by Vice President Kashim Shettima, more so because the opposition is fragmented.
The persistent insecurity in Borno and neighbouring Yobe State, which has made it one of the zones with the highest number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), casts a dark shadow on the APC’s promise of Renewed Hope for the people. It opens the party to attack by the opposition, leading to the youths here embracing the OK Movement, a political arm of the Obi/Kwankwaso presidential ticket.
This is also ADC Abubakar’s zone. The distinction between presidential and other elections would be felt here as the campaign waxes stronger, because of Abubakar’s candidacy. For now, the contest is between APC and ADC, with a slight upper hand for the former, as the six states in the zone are under the control of APC governors.
NORTH CENTRAL ZONE
In Plateau State, the 2027 race is certainly a three-horse affair with the APC, ADC and NDC in the first, second and third lanes. PDP, which once dominated the state, is still divided into two camps featuring separate governorship candidates loyal to the Kabiru Turaki and the Nyesom Wike groups, leaving the terrain to the three major political parties.
Governor Caleb Manasseh Mutfwang’s realignment and movement to the APC last January has put the ruling party in Plateau State at an advantage and position to win both the governorship and presidential election in 2027.
In Benue State, the power tussle between the factions led by Secretary to the Federal Government, George Akume and Governor Hyacinth Alia is still causing headaches for the APC and allowing the ADC under the influence of its National Chairman, Senator David Mark, to make gains, just as youths are rooting for the Obi/Kwankwaso ticket thus giving the NDC a competitive chance in the state.
Except for the governorship, where former Governor Samuel Ortom is capitalising on the Akume/Alia conflict and forging ahead with the candidacy of former Minister of Justice and Attorney-General of the Federation, Michael Aondoakka, the PDP is virtually non-existent in contention for the presidency. Kogi, Kwara and Niger remain APC strongholds, though the ADC is making strong inroads in Niger State with the recent defections of former PDP political heavyweights to the party and the growing popularity of its presidential candidate, Abubakar.
SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE
The political battle for the South-South ahead of the 2027 general election is increasingly assuming a new shape, with the ruling APC and the Senator Seriake Dickson-led NDC emerging as the dominant forces in a region where the PDP once held sway.
The six-state region (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers) has undergone a dramatic political realignment since the 2023 election. The APC, which had only Cross River State under its control when President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, has since made significant inroads into the region.
Governors Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom, Douye Diri of Bayelsa and Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta have joined the ruling party, while the APC retains control of Cross River and Edo and has established a formidable political alliance in Rivers. The realignment has left the PDP, which once dominated the region, severely weakened. But the APC’s expansion has also created a political opening for the NDC.
Led nationally by former Bayelsa governor and senator, Seriake Dickson, the NDC has the populist politician, Obi as its presidential candidate and former Kano governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as his running mate.
For the South-South, Obi brings a significant electoral asset. He won Cross River, Delta and Edo in the 2023 presidential election, while the PDP won Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa and the APC took Rivers through a widely discredited election vote count.
The NDC is now attempting to convert that presidential support into a broader political structure capable of challenging the APC at governorship and legislative levels. Dickson has positioned the party as an alternative to both the ruling APC and the weakened PDP.
With former governor Rotimi Amaechi as Atiku Abubakar’s running mate, the ADC has a potentially significant presidential presence in the state. Amaechi’s political history and network make Rivers one of the few places where the ADC could materially affect the presidential contest. At the governorship level, however, the central fight remains APC versus NDC.
Bayelsa is the NDC’s most symbolic battlefield. Dickson governed the state from 2012 to 2020, while Diri, his former political associate, succeeded him and is now in the APC.
The two men have since gone their separate political ways, transforming the 2027 contest into a direct test of Dickson’s influence in his home state.
The APC has the advantage of incumbency and the state machinery controlled by Diri. The NDC, however, is banking on Dickson’s political network and Obi’s appeal.
Akwa Ibom has also been swept into the APC’s South-South expansion. Governor Eno’s defection has brought the state’s executive structure into the ruling party, while President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, remains one of the most influential political figures in the state.
The APC has consequently entered the 2027 contest with substantial institutional advantages. The NDC’s challenge is to prevent the APC’s organisational advantage from becoming an electoral monopoly.
The party is hoping to attract politicians and voters who oppose the consolidation of political power around the APC and to use Obi’s presidential candidacy to strengthen its grassroots presence.
Cross River is one of the states where the APC faces the strongest argument from the NDC’s presidential campaign.Governor Bassey Otu remains firmly in the APC and he is seeking another term. The party has been mobilising its grassroots structures behind Otu and Tinubu.
But the NDC can point to Obi’s 2023 performance. He won Cross River in the last presidential election, creating a political base the NDC hopes to retain. NDC state chairman, Goddie Akpama, has said the party experienced significant growth following Obi and Kwankwaso’s entry.
The party’s task, however, is more difficult than reproducing the 2023 presidential result. It must build a statewide structure capable of converting presidential votes into support for its governorship and legislative candidates.
Delta is another major test of whether the Obi factor can survive the region’s political realignment. Obi won the state in 2023.
The political landscape has since changed with Governor Sheriff Oborevwori’s movement from the PDP to the APC. Oborevwori has dismissed the likelihood of another Obi victory, saying the political circumstances have changed.
The NDC is betting on the opposite calculation. Former Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege, who joined the NDC, has argued that Oborevwori’s movement to the APC was itself evidence of the political threat posed by the opposition.
The NDC believes the governor’s defection has not erased Obi’s support, while the APC believes that Oborevwori’s defection and other major political actors joining the ruling party have fundamentally changed the state’s electoral arithmetic.
Obi is expected to perform very well in Delta State especially in the North and Central parts of the state.
Edo presents another contest between APC incumbency and the NDC’s attempt to preserve the Obi coalition. Governor Monday Okpebholo controls the APC machinery in the state and has openly challenged the expectation that Obi can reproduce his 2023 presidential performance.
The NDC, however, sees Edo as another state where Obi’s previous victory provides a foundation. The party’s challenge is to turn that foundation into a disciplined statewide organisation.
The APC, meanwhile, has the advantage of incumbency and influential political figures, including former governor Adams Oshiomhole, who has repeatedly questioned the durability of Obi’s 2023 support.
The Edo election will therefore test whether the Obi vote was a permanent political realignment or largely a product of the 2023 political environment.
The transformation of the South-South is perhaps the biggest political story ahead of 2027.
The region that once functioned as one of the PDP’s most dependable political bases is now largely controlled or politically aligned with the APC.
When Tinubu came to power in 2023, only Cross River among the six states had an APC governor. Since then, the ruling party has expanded into Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Delta, while consolidating its position in Cross River, Edo and Rivers.
The development has left the PDP with a much smaller political footprint and created a vacuum that the NDC is attempting to fill.
The South-South election is consequently shaping up around two competing political propositions. The APC is offering incumbency, federal power, governors and an increasingly unified regional structure. The NDC is offering a new opposition platform backed by Dickson’s political experience and Obi’s demonstrated electoral strength.
In Bayelsa, Dickson is effectively taking on his former political base. In Akwa Ibom, the NDC faces the Eno-Akpabio political structure. In Cross River, Obi’s 2023 victory is being tested against Otu’s incumbency.
In Delta, Oborevwori’s defection has dramatically changed the political equation. In Edo, Okpebholo’s administration is seeking to erase the memory of Obi’s 2023 victory.
And in Rivers, the stakes are even higher, with Chinda’s APC candidacy backed by Wike’s political structure while Lulu-Briggs seeks to mobilise a new opposition coalition.
The ADC’s Atiku-Amaechi ticket adds another dimension to the presidential contest, particularly in Rivers, but does not alter the central state-level equation. The South-South is therefore entering 2027 with a political map vastly different from that of 2023.
The old PDP fortress has fractured; the APC has moved in and Dickson’s NDC is now attempting to stop it from taking the entire region.
Amos Esele is the Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
Felix Ifijeh is a journalist with years of professional reporting experience. Known for his keen news sense, compelling storytelling and commitment to accurate, impactful reporting, he has built a reputation for turning leads into clear, engaging, and well-structured reports that resonate with readers. His work reflects deep newsroom experience and a commitment to accurate, impactful journalism.
Abdullahi Yusuf is a seasoned journalist, communicator and was previously the Deputy Editor-In-Chief and Zonal Manager, News Agency of Nigeria, NAN, Jos, where he retired on December 15, 2021
Amos Okioma is a Correspondent at THEWILL
