September 06, (THEWILL) — Nigeria’s petrol imports rose sharply in July 2026 as domestic refinery supply fell to its lowest level of the year, highlighting the continuing volatility in the country’s transition from imported fuel to locally refined petroleum products. Average daily petrol imports increased to 19.7 million litres in July from 18.1 million litres in June and 5.9 million litres in May, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The July figure represents an 8.8 percent month-on-month increase and a 233.9 percent jump from May, when imports accounted for only 12.4 percent of total recorded petrol receipts. Domestic refinery supply moved in the opposite direction, falling from 41.5 million litres per day in May to 32.5 million litres in June and 25.8 million litres in July.
The July supply was 20.6 percent lower than the June figure and 37.8 percent below May’s output. The shift pushed imported petrol’s share of total recorded receipts to 43.3 percent in July, up from 35.8 percent in June. Domestic refineries supplied the remaining 56.7 percent. Total recorded petrol receipts also declined from 50.6 million litres per day in June to 45.5 million litres in July, representing a 10.1 percent month-on-month reduction.
The latest figures show that while Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol has fallen substantially, domestic refinery output has yet to reach a level of consistency that can eliminate the need for imports whenever local supply weakens. Between May and July, domestic refinery supply fell by 15.7 million litres per day, while imports increased by 13.8 million litres per day. The broader January-to-July figures nevertheless show how significantly the supply structure has changed.
Domestic refineries supplied 74.9 percent of approximately 9.89 billion litres of petrol receipts during the first seven months of 2026, leaving imports with a 25.1 percent share. This compares with the corresponding period of 2025, when domestic refineries supplied 39.4 percent of approximately 10.85 billion litres, while imports accounted for 60.6 percent.
In volume terms, domestic refineries supplied about 6.61 billion litres of petrol between January and July 2026, compared with approximately 1.87 billion litres from imports. During the corresponding period of 2025, domestic refineries supplied about 4.27 billion litres, while imports contributed roughly 6.58 billion litres.
Domestic refinery supply therefore increased by about 2.34 billion litres year-on-year over the seven months, while imported supply fell by approximately 4.71 billion litres. The numbers indicate a structural reduction in Nigeria’s dependence on foreign refined petrol, but they also show that the transition remains vulnerable to fluctuations in refinery output.
Domestic refinery supply had risen to 40.1 million litres per day in January, declined to 29.4 million litres in February, recovered to 34.2 million litres in March and 40.7 million litres in April before reaching 41.5 million litres in May. The subsequent fall to 32.5 million litres in June and 25.8 million litres in July reversed the gains recorded during the earlier part of the year.
Imports followed a volatile path. They averaged 24.8 million litres per day in January before falling to three million litres in February. Imports then rose to 5.9 million litres in March, dropped to 3.7 million litres in April, returned to 5.9 million litres in May and surged to 18.1 million litres in June before reaching 19.7 million litres in July.
The January-to-July figures suggest that imports are increasingly serving as a balancing source when domestic refinery supply falls rather than as the primary source of petrol. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery remains central to this shift. The refinery has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and has significantly changed Nigeria’s refined-product supply position since commencing operations.
NMDPRA data showed that Dangote produced an average of 25.9 million litres of petrol per day in July, supplying approximately 25.8 million litres to the domestic market and exporting about 3.4 million litres per day. However, crude availability remains a major factor in determining refinery output.
Domestic refineries processed 17.88 million barrels of crude in July, down from 19.12 million barrels in June. Domestic crude supplied to refineries amounted to 12.75 million barrels, while imported crude accounted for 5.13 million barrels.
Overall crude receipts by domestic refineries fell to about 585,000 barrels per day in July from 632,000 barrels per day in June. The figures underline the changing nature of Nigeria’s refining challenge. With large-scale refining capacity now available, the focus is increasingly shifting to reliable crude supply, refinery utilisation and the commercial conditions under which feedstock is secured. Dangote has also increasingly supplemented domestic crude with imported feedstock. Reuters reported in August that the refinery was importing about 30 percent to 40 percent of its crude requirements.
Nigeria is therefore reducing its reliance on imported finished petroleum products while still maintaining some dependence on imported crude to sustain domestic refining. The July petrol figures also came against weaker recorded consumption.
NMDPRA data showed that daily petrol consumption fell by 25 percent to 35.7 million litres in July from 47.4 million litres in June. This is significant because the increase in petrol imports was not accompanied by stronger recorded consumption. Imports increased as domestic refinery output declined and total petrol receipts fell.
The development also highlights the importance of inventories and stock movements when interpreting monthly supply data, since changes in imports and refinery output do not necessarily translate directly into equivalent changes in immediate consumption.
At the same time, Nigeria’s growing exports of refined petroleum products demonstrate how far the downstream market has changed.
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United States Energy Information Administration data show that Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum-product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of 79,000 barrels per day in 2023.
Seaborne petroleum-product imports, meanwhile, fell below 130,000 barrels per day in the second quarter from nearly 400,000 barrels per day in 2023.
Nigeria’s exports to Europe averaged 130,000 barrels per day during the quarter, compared with 40,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 15,000 barrels per day in 2023. Exports to other African countries also averaged nearly 120,000 barrels per day.
The combination of rising refined-product exports and renewed petrol imports is not necessarily contradictory. Refineries produce different petroleum products, and output depends on crude characteristics, refinery configuration, operating conditions, and market demand. Nigeria can therefore export diesel or other refined products while importing petrol if domestic PMS output is insufficient for local requirements.
This makes the consistency of petrol production more important than aggregate refining capacity when assessing the country’s progress towards PMS self-sufficiency. The policy challenge is consequently shifting from simply encouraging new refining capacity to ensuring that existing capacity operates consistently and receives sufficient feedstock.
A sharp restriction on imports when domestic supply is inadequate could create shortages and price pressure. Conversely, allowing significant imports when local refineries can adequately supply the market could weaken refinery utilisation and undermine the economics of domestic refining investments.
July’s figures demonstrate the balance required.
Domestic refinery supply fell by 15.7 million litres per day between May and July, while imports increased by 13.8 million litres. The market responded to weaker domestic production with greater reliance on external supply.
Nigeria has therefore made substantial progress in reducing its structural dependence on imported petrol, but the latest data show that the transition is not yet complete.
Domestic refineries supplied nearly three-quarters of recorded petrol receipts during the first seven months of 2026, compared with less than 40 percent a year earlier. Yet July showed that imports can quickly regain a significant share of the market when local refinery supply weakens.
The next phase of Nigeria’s refining transition will consequently depend less on headline capacity and more on sustained production, reliable crude supply and stable domestic deliveries. Until those conditions are consistently achieved, imported petrol will remain an important balancing mechanism, even as Nigeria increasingly emerges as a major exporter of refined petroleum products.
Ogochukwu Onwaeze is a writer specializing in business and economic journalism. At THEWILL News Media, she translates market trends, financial developments, and policy shifts into clear and engaging stories.
