September 23, (THEWILL) – The presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, will win the 2023 presidential election, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted in a new country report.
The EIU said in 2019 that Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), would win that year’s election. In 2015, it predicted victory for Muhammadu Buhari of the APC.
In its latest report ahead of the next year’s presidential election, it said the chances of Atiku winning the poll would be significantly affected by the current internal wrangling in the PDP and the growing popularity of Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), in the South-East, which is traditionally the powerhouse of the PDP.
Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, defeated several APC leaders to emerge the party’s presidential candidate in May.
Most of his opponents stepped down for him just before the commencement of the primary election, while other aspirants including Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, went ahead to test their popularity with Tinubu, but lost.
However, in recent months, Tinubu’s choice of Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno State and a fellow Muslim, as his running mate, has continued to generate controversy in the APC and across the country ahead of next year’s election.
Many stakeholders, including the Christian Association of Nigeria, have kicked against the decision of the APC.
Political analysts have speculated that the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket may affect the chances of the APC in the elections.
But the UK-based platform, in the country report, said the controversy of the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket will not affect Tinubu’s chances in the elections.
“We expect Tinubu to take the presidency, and recent developments have only reinforced our thinking. It does not appear that a Muslim-Muslim ticket will weigh significantly on Tinubu’s electoral chances”, it said.
On the chances of Atiku Abubakar at the polls, the EIU country report said the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has cause to worry over the feud with Nyesom Wike, governor of Rivers.
The report added that Atiku should also be worried about how Peter Obi of the Labour Party will balkanise the traditional votes of the PDP in the south-east.
“Atiku has more cause to worry. Not only is Obi eating into the PDP’s South-eastern support base, but Governor Wike, who finished second in the primary, does not appear to be interested in endorsing him”, the report said.
The added that the Electoral Act 2022 would bring less disputes about the presidential election results and reduce the influence of politicians on the outcome of the election.
Recently, a poll, commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited, predicted Obi, LP presidential candidate, as winner of the 2023 presidential election with 21 percent of votes.
The three other leading political parties in the race — APC, PDP and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) — rejected the outcome of the poll.