…Buhari to Influence Emergence of APC’s Flagbearer
…North Plots to Retain Power Atiku, Wike in Fight to the Finish
…Race For Delegates Hots Up
May 15, (THEWILL) – The race to the 2023 presidency is becoming swifter and stable for a few aspirants on the platform of the two major parties, the governing All Progressives Congress, APC and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Less that two weeks to the May 28 and 29 date the PDP has fixed for the conduct of its presidential primary and the May 30 date that the APC would hold its primary, presidential aspirants on both party platforms are increasing by the day while only a few are actually marching on to the D-day.
With last midweek’s presidential directive to aspiring ministers and other political appointees to resign their appointments, many aspirants in the APC are no longer at ease with their ambition, leaving the turf to four frontrunners, THEWILL can authoritatively reveal.
THEWILL gathered that Muhammadu President Buhari had expressed his dismay and anger at the number of aspirants that paid N100 million for the party’s presidential forms, which prompted his decision for political appointees to resign.
The directive came as a blow to many who had joined the bandwagon of aspirants to obtain the party’s Expression of Interest and Nomination forms when it looked like not doing so would appear politically incorrect since the president had encouraged whoever broached the idea with him to go ahead.
Mostly affected are the late comers who had not embarked on any form of consultation and were yet to buy Expression of Interest and Nomination forms beside announcing their interests publicly and making a media feast of their ambition.
The sudden volte-face of the Minister of Labour and Productivity, Senator Chris Ngige, after he, alongside 9 other Ministers, were sent forth at the presidential villa last Thursday, speaks volume of this development.
After a valedictory was held for him and other outgoing ministers, Ngige issued a state announcing “Withdrawal of My Presidential Ambition”, “in the overall interest of the of the nation, in order to enable me concentrate on my job, and assist the President and the Government weather the last lap in the life of this administration and secondly for family reasons.”
The development is however seen in political circles as part of the 2023 game plan of President Buhari. The sudden exit of the ‘sacked’ ministers is also believed to be capable of exposing the rot in some of the Ministries, Departments and Agencies as most of the ministers were not given enough time to tidy up their mess. Moreover, Minister of Information, Lai Mohammed, has disclosed that replacements for the ‘sacked’ ministers were underway.
For the PDP, the decision of the National Executive Committee, NEC, to throw the zoning option open to all aspirants with a pleasing clause on consensus candidacy, if the situation warrants it, has given some aspirants on its platform something serious to think about.
From within both dominant parties which are the main contenders in the 2023 elections, have emerged frontrunners that could clinch the presidential ticket if the parties held their primaries now. This is because some of these aspirants have the structure, the war chest and carry a lot of clout while a few have captured the popular imagination to give them the required attention to remain in the fray.
FRONTRUNNERS IN APC, PDP
As at the close of sale of forms last Thursday, 18 aspirants have purchased the APC presidential form. They are Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo; former Minister of Transport, Chief Rotimi Amaechi, former Lagos State governor, Bola Tinubu; former Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajuiba; Lagos pastor, Tunde Bakare; Governor Mohammed Badaru of Jigawa State; Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State and Senator Rochas Okorocha. Others are Senate President Ahmad Lawan, Governor Yahaya Bello; former Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Godswill Akpabio; Ms Uju Ohanenye, the only female and Nicholas Felix.
Others are Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State; former Governor of Ogun State, Senator Ibikunle Amosun; Ex-Senate President, Ken Nnamani; former Minister of Science and Technology, Ogbonnaya Onu; and former Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva.
The power play within the party has sowed so much uncertainty within the ranks that only four formidable aspirants have emerged as frontrunners, two weeks to the presidential primary. They are Amaechi, Tinubu, Osinbajo and Lawan.
The PDP, on the other hand, has screened 17 presidential aspirants on its platform, with 15 of them passing the screening exercise, namely, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State and his Sokoto counterpart, Aminu Tambuwal; ex-Senate President, Bukola Saraki; Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State; and ex-Anambra governor, Peter Obi.
Others are ex-Secretary to Government of the Federation, Pius Anyim Pius; ex-banker Mohammed Hayatu-Deen; Governor Udom Emmanuel of Akwa Ibom State; Publisher, Dele Momudu; former governor of Ekiti State; Ayodele Fayose; Cosmas Ndukwe; Sam Ohuabunwa and Dr Anthony Nwachukwu. Like its rival APC, the opposition has just three major aspirants looking good to emerge as flagbearer.
The top contenders are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Governor Nyesom Wike and former Senate President, Bukola Saraki.
FRONTRUNNING ASPIRANTS
APC: AMAECHI:
The selling point for the former transportation minister is what party bigwigs describe as his hybrid origin. His political geography is South-South, Rivers State, while his nationality as Ikwere identifies him with the Igbo in the South-East. Apart from that, the former two-term governor of Rivers State and two-term Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly has the resources to fund his primary election and also a nationwide election if he emerges the flagbearer. His two-term tenure as Minister of Transport has helped him consolidate his influence particularly in the North through patronage to traditional and political power brokers.
THEWILL gathered authoritatively that Buhari’s preference for a South-South successor with ties to Igbos is making Amaechi the aspirant to beat as he is the only aspirant in the race that meets the criteria. “The president has told his close advisers and the new party chairman, Abdullahi Adamu of his desire to reignite the political ties between the North and the minorities in the South,” one of our presidency sources said, asking not to be identified.
TINUBU:
Having helped politicians into top positions as governors, ministers and legislators, coupled with his legendary wealth acquired from maintaining a firm grip on the finances of Lagos State where he was the first governor for two terms, Tinubu has the clout, structure and war chest to match any aspirant to a standstill. He is calling up the political capital he has built over the years as he consults across the country, wooing party delegates and selling his manifesto.
Tinubu’s biggest hurdle to the APC presidential ticket is the lack of support for his aspiration from President Buhari and the party’s national chairman Adamu. He is also not trusted by the northern establishment.
LAWAN:
The President of the Senate, who once denied having any presidential ambition, suddenly turned around to obtain the APC’s nomination form less than a week to the end of the registration exercise. He emerged after the National Chairman of the party broke the news of the party’s decision to abandon its previous stand on zoning the presidency to the South. He had said frontally that the governing party would field a northerner if the PDP fields a northern candidate.
Although Governor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar of Jigawa State and Senator Ahmed Sani, alongside Lawan, have picked the APC forms, the Senate President who is from Yobe State, North East, is the only strong candidate the APC can field today from the North in response to the PDP challenge. He is today the northern establishment’s man in the APC.
OSINBAJO:
The decision to include Vice President Osinbajo as a major contender in the APC presidential race was a tough one because of the power play and intrigues surrounding the race.
Though his candidacy is popular amongst Nigerians if the results of sample polls are to be taken seriously, the preacher-cum politician does not appear to have the political structure and resources to compete and win over delegates in the party’s primary.
His main support, a big one for that matter, is from the Nasarawa State Governor, Abdullahi Sule-led coalition of some governors of the party who are rooting for him. There is also the claim that being the Vice President for eight years, he remains close to some of President Buhari’s men who have access to Aso Rock and this may be an advantage to realising his ambition.
However, Osinbajo’s main obstacle to the APC ticket is that he does not enjoy the backing of the President and his very close kitchen cabinet members.
PDP: ATIKU:
The decision of the party to throw the presidential primaries open has boosted the chances of the former Vice President who has lost some support from the key old bloc in the party, which swung things in his favour to become the party’s candidate in 2019. With the removal of zoning, there are insinuations that the party’s National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu and Chairman of the Zoning Committee, Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue state, are supporting Atiku who, besides being a friend, is also a titled chief in Tiv land, as Zege Mule U Tiv (defender of the Tiv Nation). In addition, Atiku, 75, has the money to spend, a vast network of political associates across the country making up a solid structure for him to consummate his ambition.
One factor that could cost Atiku the PDP ticket is his age as well as the controversy surrounding his comments on the barbaric killing of a Christian female student, Deborah Samuel, in Sokoto State for alleged blasphemy against Prophet Mohammed, by a group of Muslim students. Atiku had initially condemned the murder in a tweet but deleted it when some northern Muslims threatened not to vote for him.
WIKE:
As a major financier of the party, the Rivers State governor has been able to determine many outcomes for the party, as well as make reliable friends among governors, particularly Governors Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and Ahmed Fintiri of Adamawa State, with whom he recently re-engineered the party before and after former National Chairman of the PDP, Uche Sedondus, was forced out. He also has a lot of money to make delegates look his way. He is known to have an effective grassroots group across all the 774 local government areas, which he built when he was Chairman of Obio Akpor Local Government 1999 to 2007 and has revived and sustained the network since becoming governor in 2015. This backing of such a post-primary grassroots structure would have made him intensify efforts to clinch the party ticket. He stands as the most formidable aspirant from the South strong enough to compete for the ticket.
The fortunes of the PDP in the 2023 presidential election may be determined by how it manages Wike’s aspiration in its primary.
SARAKI:
Quietly and smoothly, the former Senate President, who was popular in the party for his activism, is said to have become the darling of the old bloc of the party that have broken ties with Atiku, the General Ibrahim Babangida, General Abdulsalami Abubakar and General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau. His battle cry that the party gives the North-Central zone a shot at the presidency is favourably received by the old bloc and some stakeholders in the party who are seeking a president in his 50s with leadership experience.
His major drawback is that he does not have the kind of money at the disposal of Atiku and Wike.
About the Author
Amos Esele is the Deputy Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
