12 States to Watch as Forces Realign
LP in Epic Battle Against PDP, APC in Lagos, Delta, Abia, Enugu
PDP, APC Wrestle in Oyo, Kaduna, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Cross River, Benue, Plateau
NNPP Moves to Take Kano •All Eyes on INEC, BVAS, Real Time Transmission of Results to IReV
By AMOS ESELE with GEORGE MARTINS, SAMPSON UHUEGBU and SUNDAY OGBU
With the presidential election out of the way, local politicians supporting age-long entrenched interests have refocused attention at the sub-national level for the March 18 Governorship and Houses of Assembly polls, far from the overpowering factors of personality, religion, ethnicity and money that played out during the controversial February 25, 2023 Presidential and National Assembly elections.
More importantly, there is also the Bi-modal Voters Accreditation System (BVAS), a machine that appears to have restored power to the electorate, owing to its positive impact on the electoral process during the presidential poll.
Although the presidential candidates have helped to shape outcomes in some geo-political zones where, for instance, even the governors of the North Central states of Benue, Taraba and Plateau failed to win senatorial seats like their counterparts in the South-East states of Abia and Enugu, as well as the South-South state of Cross River, the upcoming March 18 elections have raised the stakes higher for political parties, THEWILL investigation shows.
In the event, the parties are forging alliances to consolidate earlier victories while some are doing so to cut their losses in the presidential poll and retain some foothold on power at the local level. Labour Party, LP, officials in Oyo, Rivers, Adamawa and Ogun have declared support for the ruling party in these states, forcing their headquarters to dissolve its exco in Rivers State, where the party is presumed to be strong enough to participate in the poll.
Notable also is Lagos State, the country’s commercial nerve centre and cosmopolis where the ethnic card is being whipped up, following the outcome of the presidential election in which the LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, against all projections, defeated APC’s candidate, Ahmed Bola Tinubu, now president-elect, in the popular vote.
Afraid of a repeat at the governorship election, supporters of the APC are whipping up ethnic sentiments, posing the contest as an Igbo versus Yoruba fight when, in fact, all the prominent candidates in the poll are Yoruba.
How the local factors play out in the upcoming poll will be aptly captured by ongoing power play in the 12 states THEWILL has investigated.
These states are Abia, Akwa Ibom, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Enugu, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Oyo and Plateau.
LAGOS
PROJECTION: Too Close To Call
Babajide Sanwo-Olu (APC) Vs Gbadebo Vivour-Rhodes (LP)
Three political parties are visibly in the contest for the governorship. They are the APC with incumbent Governor Babajide-Sanwo-Olu as its candidate; the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, with Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran, alias Jandor, as candidate and Gbadebo Vivour-Rhodes of the LP.
The outcome of the presidential election, won by LP in popular vote of 582,454 as against 572, 606 for APC, though the latter won in 12 out of the 20 local government areas of the state, leaving 8 to LP, has reset the tempo and stage for a fierce governorship contest between the LP and APC.
This is the first time that Lagos, which has been under the control of the party led by Tinubu for the past 23 years, is facing this challenge, a frightening development for the APC.
For this reason, the major gladiators for the crown are the LP candidate and his APC rival, Vivour-Rhodes and Sanwo-Olu, respectively.
Three main factors will determine the outcome of the poll: They are ethnicity, entrenched interests going back to 1999 when the Fourth Republic started and the only party in power was led by Tinubu, and the youths.
As far as ethnicity goes, the main thrust is indigenous not outside the state. Although supporters of the status quo say the battle is between the Igbo and Yoruba, the voting pattern during the presidential election clearly debunks that thinking. The votes won by Obi were evenly spread across the 20 local government areas, even though he triumphed in eight, meaning that Lagos citizens voted massively for a change of the status quo.
The indigenous nature of the ethnic factor is playing out in what is commonly called the Committee of Indigenes of Lagos, CIL, who think somebody of their descent should become governor of the state.
At the rally held for Vivour-Rhodes on Wednesday, March 8, 2023, addressed by the Lagos Chapter Chairman of Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba social-political group, Supo Shonibare, the CIL said they were supporting the LP candidate because he was a ‘true Lagosian’. In that context, Sanwo-Olu and his deputy, Hamzat, clearly do not fit in because they hail from Ogun State.
Vivour-Rhodes’s youthful age of 40 and his identification with the #EndSARS protest in Lagos has earned him a large followership among the youthful voting population in Lagos. In fact, many aggrieved youths who had not known this side of him until his social media critics exposed it, have found it easy to transfer their preference for Obi to him.
The factor of entrenched interest is a double-edged sword. They are supporters of the status quo who will throw all that they have into the contest to ensure the old order remains. But this same old order, unfortunately, was the source of the protest vote during the presidential election. So, the target of voters is not Governor Sanwo-Olu per se, but that old, punishing order that has not significantly transformed the state into a cosmopolitan habitat despite the approximately N40 billion monthly revenue earned from taxes.
Even so, THEWILL checks show the LP will put up a good fight despite Sanwo-Olu’s advantage in terms of his achievements, particularly his sacrificial fight against COVID-19, his rise to assist distressed Lagosians, such as during two major pipeline disasters and building collapse incidents, as well as fair and promising strides taken by his administration to ensure infrastructural development in the state. If Peter Obi campaigns heavily in the state and rallies the Obidients for the LP, then the APC will surely be under a whole lot of pressure.
THEWILL projects that the election will be fiercely contested and therefore too close to call.
KADUNA
THEWILL PROJECTION: PDP Win
Senator Uba Sani (APC) Vs Isa Ashiru (PDP)
The PDP’s victory at the Presidential and National Assembly elections in Kaduna State, winning all three senatorial seats and 10 out of the total 16 House of Representatives seats, has spoken loudly about the apparent defeat of the APC in the state. THEWILL checks show that voters have resolved to see the back of Governor Nasir el-Rufai, a myopic and ineffective leader, who many blame for the insecurity that turned the state into a killing field.
To worsen matters, the APC sustained one of the major sources of trouble in the multi-ethnic state, the Muslim-Muslim ticket for the governorship. Thus Senator Uba Sani may find it hard to defeat a one-time state lawmaker and House of Reps member, Isa Ashiru of the PDP in the upcoming poll. Senator Sani however said he is not losing sleep over the PDP victory at the presidential poll. THEWILL Projects a clear win for the PDP.
PLATEAU
THEWILL PROJECTION: PDP Win
Dr Nentawe Yilwatda (APC) Vs Caleb Mutsfwang (PDP)
The LP and the PDP had an agreement to support one another in the general election. LP would get the support during the presidential election while the PDP would take its turn during the governorship. As at press time, that agreement was still in place. But with the postponement of the poll till March 18, there is still the possibility that the terms of the alliance may change. However, Governor Simon Lalongs’s Senatorial defeat at the hands of the PDP shows the extent to which the main opposition party has eaten deep into the territory of the governor.
The battle is therefore drawn between the PDP’s candidate, Caleb Mutsfwang and that of the governing APC, Dr. Nentawe Yilwatda. Given the anti-government sentiments over unpaid pensioners, coupled with an electorate still fuming over the loss of their presidential candidate, Obi, having voted mainly against a Muslim-Muslim ticket, THEWILL projects victory for the PDP candidate.
OYO
THEWILL PROJECTION: PDP Win
Governor Seyi Makinde (PDP) Vs Senator Teslim Folarin (APC)
With his co-G5 governors, such as Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State and Samuel Ortom of Benue State having failed to win in the National Assembly election, all eyes are on Governor Seyi Makinde, the remaining PDP group of aggrieved governors contesting in the 2023 general election.
Makinde’s major challenger is Senator Teslim Folarin of the APC, though the Accord Party candidate, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, a scion of the stormy petrel of old Oyo politics in the first and second republic, Adegoke Adelabu, is in contention. A faction of the APC in the state, supporters of late Governor Abiola Ajimobi, are supporting him but the three House of Representatives members elected on the platform of the party on February 25, have offered their support to Folarin, forcing the National Executive Committee of the party to dissolve the local chapter.
Still, the APC triumphed heavily during the presidential poll, winning all three senatorial seats and 8 of the 12 representative seats. Also, some PDP chieftains, aggrieved over Makinde’s G-5 stand, open pre-presidential election support for Tinubu, are lukewarm over his ambition, though he tried to play smart on the eve of the presidential poll when he told supporters to “vote PDP from top to bottom.”
Already, many PDP youths have openly declared support for Senator Folarin, even though a Bola Ahmed Tinubu, BAT, group has thrown their weight behind the governor, giving the contest an inter-party colouration that has sharpened the battle line between the two major contestants. Moreover, the LP officials in the state have collapsed the party structure in the state for the governor.
As earlier mentioned, APC is also going into the contests as a divided house. A faction loyal to late Governor Abiola Ajimobi has joined the Accord Party.
With the support of the workers, party stalwarts and the politically active transport union workers over whom the governor maintains a firm grip and the BAT group, THEWILL projects that Makinde will be victorious at the poll.
RIVERS
THEWILL PROJECTION: PDP Win
Siminalaye Fubara (PDP) Vs Tonye Cole (APC)
Governor Nyesom Wike’s strong arm tactics will ensure that the PDP triumphs against all odds. Already he has squashed the threat posed by the LP by co-opting their officials to declare support for the PDP candidate, Fubara, forcing the Nigeria Labour Congress to dissolve the party’s exco.
Indeed, many supporters of Atiku Abubakar, whom Wike, in pursuit of his G-5 grievances, prevented from campaigning in the state, have joined the governor who promised to absorb them into the party.
Tonye Cole’s candidacy suffers from disunity within the ranks of the APC in the state. After a prolonged supremacy battle, Senator Magnus Abe left with his supporters to join the Social Democratic Party, SDP, as governorship candidate, further splintering the group. The fact that Wike promised and delivered the state to the APC during the presidential election while the PDP won all the senatorial seats and majority of the representatives seats shows where the pendulum will swing in the governorship election. THEWILL projects a win for the PDP.
KANO
THEWILL PROJECTION: NNPP Win
Abba Kabir Yusuf (NNPP) Vs Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna (APC)
Voters in Kano State spoke eloquently on February 25, 2023. The New Nigeria Peoples Party presidential candidate and former governor of the state, Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, won the state by a huge margin. He won 38 of the 44 local government areas, got a total of 997,279 votes while his closest rival, APC’s Tinubu secured 517,341 votes and Atiku of PDP got 131, 716 votes. Two of the three senatorial seats at stake were won by the party. APC won one.
THEWILL projects a repeat performance during the governorship election and the NNPP will take control of a major state in the federation as the ancient commercial city of Kano is second to Lagos in population. It is also third largest commercial centre after Ogun State.
ABIA
THEWILL PROJECTION: LP Win
Okey Ahaiwe (PDP) Vs Alex Otti (LP)
There is palpable fear in Abia that the PDP may be routed from the state for the first time since 1999. THEWILL checks show that things are not as clear cut as it may seem. Local factors are quite likely to play out in the governorship election. Although the Obi factor is still at play, there is evidence that the PDP candidate who comes from Umuire village in Eziama Ntigha Autonomous Community of Isiala Ngwa North Local Government Area, one of the nine out of 17 LGAs controlled by the Ngwa People in Abia State, has a lean fighting chance against the LP candidate, Alex Otti, who also hails from the same zone.
This factor, in addition to entrenched interest in the state, may not carry the day for the PDP. The LP candidate Otti is a veteran of governorship contests in the state and may exploit the sentiments for Obi and the grievances against the incumbent Governor Okezie Ikpeazu, who owes workers and retirees several months’ salaries and pension arrears.
Recently, doctors in the state’s service embarked on an indefinite strike over non-payment of salary arrears of over 25 months. Pensioners are reportedly owed up to 56 months in arrears.
So the LP candidate is no push-over. Ikpeazu, who hails from Ungwa, lost his senatorial bid for Abia South to an Ungwa son from a different party, Senator Abaribe of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA. THEWILL projects a win for the LP.
ENUGU
THEWILL PROJECTION: Leaning LP
Dr Peter Mbah (PDP), Chijioke Edeoga (LP) and Frank Nweke Jr (APGA)
The governorship race in Enugu state is a three-horse race among the governing PDP, the rising LP and revived APGA. Here, like in Abia where Ikpeazu lost his senatorial ambition, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi lost his Enugu North senatorial bid to the LP candidate, Barrister Okey Ezea, by a wide margin. He polled 46,948 votes to Ezea’s 104, 492 votes. There is also trouble for the PDP in Enugu South Senatorial District.
Here, the poll was postponed because of the assassination of the LP candidate, Chief Oyinbo Victor Chukwu, known to pose a stiff challenge to incumbent PDP incumbent Senator Chimaroke Nnamani.
The deceased’s brother, Kelvin Chukwu has been nominated to replace him. Nnamani has been expelled by the PDP for anti-party activities, leaving that senatorial district for the picking by the LP.
The APGA candidate, Frank Nweke, a former Minister of Information is running a popular and formidable campaign in the state but has the LP to contend with.
Like in other South-East states where Obi trounced other parties with almost 88 per cent to 90 percent of the votes cast, THEWILL projects that Enugu will fall to the LP and its candidate, Chijioke Edeoga, a former House of Representatives Committee Chairman on Information.
AKWA IBOM
THEWILL PROJECTION: Too Close To Call
Akwa Ibom: Pastor Umoh Eno (PDP) Vs Akan Udofia (APC)
Last Wednesday’s Supreme Court affirmation of likeable entrepreneur Akan Udofia, almost on the eve of the now postponed governorship poll, as APC governorship candidate appears to be the ginger the main opposition party in the Akwa Ibom needed to close ranks and put up a fierce battle against the ruling PDP, which was weakened by the exit of Senator Albert Bassey, who is now the candidate of the YPP.
Godswill Akpabio, the former governor and leader of the APC in the state won his senatorial bid by defeating the PDP in Akwa Ibom North West, putting the APC in play at the governorship poll.
The PDP, which won two senatorial seats and majority representatives in the House of Representatives poll has a head start. In addition, Governor Udom Emmanuel is largely known to have performed and followed the developmental strides of his predecessors. He delivered the state to the party in the presidential poll. More importantly, the Obi-Datti Movement in Akwa Ibom State on Friday, March 10 endorsed Mr Umo Eno, the PDP candidate.
THEWILL checks show there are serious moves to have Bassey, the YPP candidate drop out of the race and endorse Udofia, his close friend, a masterstroke that pundits polled think will lead the APC to victory. Because of this new development, THEWILL projects Akwa Ibom too close to call.
CROSS RIVER
THEWILL PROJECTION: Too Close To Call
Senator Sandy Onor (PDP) Vs Senator Bassey Otu (APC)
The PDP made good its promise to deal with Governor Ben Ayade by taking the battle to his Cross River North Senatorial District, where he lost to the party’s candidate, Senator Agom Jarigbe. APC won the two other senatorial seats in the state though, but the defeat opened the governing APC to further attacks by the PDP.
This single victory has re-energised the erstwhile PDP that had been riven by disputes and conflicts. This showed on Friday, March 10 when ten political parties, including the Africa Democratic Congress, ADC, Zenith Labour Party, ZLP, APGA and Allied Democratic Party, ADP, Action Alliance, AA, and Accord, as well as the local chapter of the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria, PFN, and a Catholic Church group adopted Onor as their governorship candidate. So has the ‘Obidient Movement’ group in the state, under the aegis of the Coalition for the Labour Party Presidential Candidate, groups like Likeminds for Peter Obi, Nigeria needs Peter Obi, Peter Obi Support Network, Take Back Naija Movement, Women for Peter Obi, Peter Obi FC, Peter Obi Movement for President, Peter Obi Candidacy Movement, Peter Obi Ambassadors and Peter Obi 4 Good. They abandoned the LP candidate in the state, Ernest Jose.
THEWILL projects the race as too close to call between the APC and the PDP.
DELTA
THEWILL PROJECTION: APC Win
Ovie Omo-Agege (APC) Vs Sheriff Oborevwori (PDP) Vs Ken Pela (LP)
The shocking and humiliating defeat of the Peoples Democratic Party and Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, the party’s vice presidential candidate in the presidential election in the oil-rich state rattled the governor and his supporters and questioned his capacity to deliver the state to the party.
Though projected to suffer defeat in the poll because of his clannishness, unpopularity statewide even in his Ika constituency and stunted by his poor leadership skills, no one foresaw the devastating and crushing of the PDP by the LP which trounced it by over 180, 000 votes in that election.
With the resounding defeat of the PDP in that poll, the party and its governorship candidate, Sheriff Oborevwori, the Speaker of the House, appear to be in a very vulnerable position with the conflict in the party, a situation the party had never been in since 1999 when the country returned to democratic rule.
The APC won two out of the three seats propelled by the support of a faction of the PDP backed by Chief James Ibori, a former Governor of the State, as well as the support of the LP, whose presidential candidate, Peter Obi, won the presidential poll.
Omo-Agege, the deputy senate president and candidate of the APC, whose popularity has steadily risen ahead of the governorship election, has gotten the endorsement of many members of the PDP in the state who are vehemently opposed to the emergence of Sheriff, an Okowa imposed pick on the party.
The PDP however won seven House of Representatives seats, while the LP won two and the APC won one.
The LP candidate, Ken Pela, a new comer to the race, is also campaigning hard and banking on his party to repeat its outstanding performance in the upcoming election even though most of the votes that went to Obi were from supporters of the PDP, who voted against Okowa as well as those of the APC, who voted against the party’s Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket. However, if Obi campaigns heavily in the state and rallies his Obidient movement base, the LP may shock the establishment in the state again.
THEWILL projects a win for the APC in the governorship election.
BENUE
THEWILL PROJECTION: Too Close To Call
Titus Uba (PDP) Vs Rev Fr. Hyacinth Alia (APC)
Although Governor Sam Ortom of Benue State lost his senatorial seat by a slim margin, PDP still enjoys plenty of goodwill in the state at least in the governorship poll. Its candidate, the current Speaker of the Benue State House of Assembly, Titus Uba, will square up with Rev Fr Hyacinth Alia who is flying the APC ticket. The LP Herman Hembe is also in the race though the battle appears to be squarely between the ruling PDP and the opposition APC in the state. The entry of Fr Alia into the race seemingly constitutes a clog in the wheel of progress of the ruling party in Benue which is predominantly a PDP controlled state. However, the APC pulled a surprise win in the presidential election sending shock waves across the state.
THEWILL projects the governorship poll as too close to call.
About the Author
Amos Esele is the Deputy Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
