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Fifteen governorship candidates will battle for Osun Government House on Saturday as 1,906,390 registered voters with PVC prepare to decide the state’s political future in one of Nigeria’s most closely watched off-cycle elections.
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Governor Ademola Adeleke, APC’s Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) and ADC’s Dr Najeem Salam have emerged as the three dominant contenders
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The battle is expected to be decided across the strategic voting blocs of Osun West, Osun East and Osun Central, where incumbency, federal backing, grassroots structures and political realignments will be put to the ultimate test.
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Beyond determining who occupies Government House in Osogbo, the election is widely regarded as the biggest political dress rehearsal ahead of the 2027 general elections.
August 15, (THEWILL) — With less than 24 hours before voters head to the polls, Osun State has become the epicentre of Nigeria’s political contest, as 15 governorship candidates prepare to battle for the state’s highest office in an election whose implications stretch far beyond the State of the Living Spring.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has confirmed that 1,906,390 registered voters who have collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) are eligible to participate in Saturday’s governorship election, where they will decide who governs Osun State for the next four years.
“Out of the total of 2,339,233 registered voters in the State, 1,906,390 PVCs, representing 81.50 per cent, have been collected. The remaining 426,842 PVCs, representing 18.50 per cent, have been safely deposited with the Central Bank of Nigeria in line with the Commission’s established practice,” INEC confirmed on Thursday.
The poll, however, is being viewed not merely as another off-cycle election but as a major referendum on the strength of Nigeria’s democratic institutions and a crucial pointer to the political alignments likely to shape the 2027 general elections.
Weeks of intense campaigns, political defections, legal battles, allegations of intimidation, heightened security deployment and fierce exchanges among rival parties have transformed the election into one of the country’s most keenly watched political contests.
Although 15 candidates will appear on Saturday’s ballot, political analysts broadly agree that the race has crystallised around three leading contenders — incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Dr Najeem Salam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
The late inclusion of Dr Francis Olugbenga Ajala of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), following a court order, has also introduced another variable into the contest.
The 15 Candidates On The Ballot
Following the inclusion of the SDP candidate after a Federal High Court judgment, the governorship candidates are:
Ademola Adeleke — Accord Party
Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) — APC
Dr Najeem Salam — ADC
Dr Francis Olugbenga Ajala — SDP
Olanrewaju Farinloye — AA
Olajide Esan — AAC
Yemisi Adeagbo — ADP
Adesina Adeyemi-Doro — APGA
Adewale Adebayo — APM
Clement Adesuyi — APP
Masilo Adeleke — Boot Party
Taofeek Adeleke — NNPP
Saliu Oyelami — PRP
Olalekan Ogunsakin — YPP
Adefemi Adesuyi — ZLP
Among them, 84-year-old retired school principal Yemisi Adeagbo remains the only female governorship candidate.
Adeleke Banks On Incumbency And Labour Support
Governor Ademola Adeleke enters Saturday’s election seeking a second term after almost four years in office.
Campaigning under his “Five-Point Agenda Reloaded”, Adeleke has repeatedly asked voters to judge him by his administration’s record in road construction, workers’ welfare, education, healthcare, agriculture, pension payments and rural development.
Beyond the visibility of ongoing projects across the state, Adeleke continues to enjoy considerable goodwill among organised labour following regular salary payments and improved workers’ welfare.
Political observers also believe the governor maintains a formidable political machine in Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore and parts of Ejigbo, where the Adeleke political family has remained influential for decades. He is also expected to poll strongly in parts of Osun West despite facing stronger opposition than in 2022.
However, the governor confronts significant challenges. The opposition has accused his administration of nepotism in appointments, criticised recruitment exercises, questioned performance in agriculture and industrial development, and alleged uneven distribution of projects across the state.
Oyebamiji Seeks APC Comeback
Standing as Adeleke’s principal challenger is former Commissioner for Finance and former Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji.
Popularly known as AMBO, the banker has built his campaign around his “Prosperity Agenda”, promising economic expansion, fiscal discipline, infrastructure renewal, industrialisation, youth employment and increased investment.
Oyebamiji’s greatest advantage lies in the formidable political structure behind his candidacy.
He enjoys the backing of President Bola Tinubu, the APC national leadership, the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, governors elected on the APC platform and influential party leaders across Osun State.
His campaign also received a boost from recent defections by key political figures, including Senator Francis Fadahunsi, Hon. Wole Oke, Hon. Sanya Omirin and Hon. Taofeek Ajilesoro, whose political structures could strengthen the APC’s position in parts of Osun East.
The APC candidate is expected to perform strongly in Ikire, Irewole, Ayedaade, Isokan, parts of Osogbo, Olorunda and sections of Osun East, where party leaders have intensified mobilisation.
Yet, critics continue to associate him with the controversial salary modulation policy implemented during previous APC administrations, arguing that many workers and pensioners still harbour grievances from that period.
Salam Eyes Historic Third-Force Breakthrough
Representing the African Democratic Congress (ADC), is former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Dr Najeem Salam.
Campaigning on a 10-point development agenda, Salam has positioned himself as the alternative to both the Accord Party and APC. His manifesto focuses on institutional reforms, workers’ welfare, electricity, education, industrialisation, youth empowerment and transparent governance.
Salam’s greatest political asset remains the support of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, now National Secretary of the ADC, whose grassroots political structure still commands influence in parts of Osun.
Political analysts believe Salam could perform strongly in Ejigbo, Iwo and parts of Osun West where Aregbesola retains loyal supporters.
However, observers say the ADC lacks the statewide organisational structure, financial resources and polling-unit network enjoyed by both the Accord Party and APC. Aregbesola’s influence is also being tested, making the election a significant measure of the ADC’s strength ahead of 2027.
Where The Election Will Be Won Or Lost
Political observers agree that Saturday’s contest will largely be decided across the state’s three senatorial districts.
Osun West : Osun West has emerged as the election’s biggest battleground because the three leading candidates all hail from the district.
Governor Adeleke is from Ede, Oyebamiji from Ikire, while Salam is from Ejigbo. The district produced his largest margin in 2022, but analysts expect a more fragmented outcome this time as each candidate seeks dominance in his home base.
Osun Central : Osun Central could once again prove decisive. The APC hopes to leverage its structures in Osogbo and Olorunda, while Adeleke is counting on incumbency and support from influential political leaders to offset APC gains.
Osun East : Perhaps the most unpredictable battleground is Osun East. Recent political defections, fierce campaigns in Ijesaland and Ile-Ife, and heightened political rhetoric have transformed the district into one of the most closely watched theatres of the election.
The APC believes recent defections have strengthened its chances, while the Accord Party insists its grassroots mobilisation remains intact.
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More Than An Election
Beyond deciding who governs Osun for the next four years, Saturday’s poll has become a national political barometer.
Political parties, election observers, civil society groups and members of the diplomatic community see the election as a critical test of INEC’s preparedness, the neutrality of security agencies and Nigeria’s commitment to credible democratic processes ahead of the 2027 general elections.
INEC has assured voters that all sensitive and non-sensitive materials have been deployed, while security agencies have pledged adequate protection for voters, election officials and electoral materials.
By the close of polls on Saturday, Osun voters will have answered several defining questions: whether Governor Adeleke secures another four-year mandate, whether the APC returns to Government House through Oyebamiji, whether Salam can deliver a third-force upset, or whether another candidate can spring a surprise.
Whatever the outcome, the Osun governorship election is expected to reshape the state’s political landscape and provide an important indication of the balance of political forces ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
Felix Ifijeh is a journalist with years of professional reporting experience. Known for his keen news sense, compelling storytelling and commitment to accurate, impactful reporting, he has built a reputation for turning leads into clear, engaging, and well-structured reports that resonate with readers. His work reflects deep newsroom experience and a commitment to accurate, impactful journalism.
