September 13, (THEWILL) – President Bola Tinubu’s bid for a second term is heading into the 2027 presidential election under the weight of four issues that the opposition is increasingly seeking to turn into a referendum on his administration. The issues are insecurity, economic hardship, the controversy surrounding his old US drug-forfeiture case and questions over his academic and NYSC credentials.
The issues are different in character and legal status, but they provide the opposition with a common political argument: That after more than three years in office, Nigerians should judge Tinubu not by promises or official statistics alone, but by their experience of security, living standards, governance and confidence in the President’s personal record.
The APC, however, enters the election with a different narrative. The ruling party points to economic reforms that have improved government revenues and investor confidence, rising GDP growth, increased oil production, military operations against terrorists and kidnappers, infrastructure projects and what it describes as the gradual emergence of the benefits of painful reforms.
Tinubu was formally presented with the APC’s certificate and party flag as its presidential candidate for the 2027 election in May. The election campaign has now begun, with the presidential poll scheduled for January 2027.
Tinubu and major opposition figures, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, are expected to dominate the contest, although the opposition remains divided over its strategy and candidate. Reuters reported in August that nearly 80 per cent of Nigerians surveyed by SBM Intelligence considered the country to be moving in the wrong direction, while 45 per cent identified economic hardship and insecurity as their top concerns. That finding gives political meaning to the four issues, now being amplified by the opposition. Insecurity: The Opposition’s First Line of Attack: Insecurity cuts across Nigeria’s political, ethnic and religious divisions.
Terrorism, banditry, kidnapping and communal violence have continued to affect large parts of the country, with the violence spreading beyond traditional theatres of conflict. The latest figures from SBM Intelligence paint a troubling picture.
Between July 2025 and June 2026, 7,825 people were abducted in Nigeria, representing a 66 per cent increase from the previous year. At least 1,142 people were killed, while confirmed ransom payments rose to N7.78 billion, equivalent to about $5.79 million at the exchange rate cited by Reuters. SBM said the figures were conservative because many ransom payments were never reported.
The security crisis has also produced spectacular mass-abduction incidents. In August, gunmen reportedly abducted about 600 people in Niger State, while about 30 people were killed and roughly 2,000 others reportedly fled into neighbouring Benin Republic. Although THEWILL could not immediately verify the number of abductees, security experts described the incident as a serious failure of the state’s ability to protect vulnerable communities.
Amnesty International has also documented more than 1,100 people abducted in several mass-abduction incidents during the first months of 2026, including attacks in Niger, Borno, Kaduna and Zamfara states. The organisation had earlier reported that at least 10,217 people were killed by armed groups during Tinubu’s first two years in office, a figure disputed by Nigeria’s National Security Adviser.
For the opposition, the numbers provide ammunition. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) accused Tinubu of becoming a “commentator” on insecurity rather than taking sufficient action, describing the President as a “Statement Maker-in-Chief,” while criticising his attacks on opposition politicians. Atiku has similarly urged the President to focus on insecurity and the economic difficulties facing Nigerians. More recently, he described insecurity as more than a security problem, saying it had become a “cost-of-living tax” on Nigerian families.
The opposition’s calculation is simple: Every major kidnapping, terrorist attack or community massacre provides another opportunity to question whether the Federal Government has fulfilled its most fundamental responsibility — protecting lives and property. But the administration is not without a defence.
In July, Tinubu approved the expansion of the Nigerian Army from eight to 12 divisions and authorised the recruitment of 28,000 additional personnel. The new formations are planned for Makurdi, Ilorin, Jalingo and Benin City, while the government also approved additional investment in equipment, operational readiness and troop welfare.
The military has also recorded notable successes. In August, security forces rescued more than 300 abducted people in what was described as the country’s largest single-day hostage recovery, including victims kidnapped during attacks in Kwara and Niger states. Tinubu has repeatedly maintained that his administration will defeat the security threats.
After the Niger State mass abduction, he declared: “Terror will not cow Nigeria. We will defend our people, protect our communities and uphold the sanctity of human life.”
The political problem for the APC is that military operations can produce tactical victories, while voters continue to judge the government by whether they can travel, farm, attend school and sleep without fear.
Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, head of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre and Transparency International Nigeria, captured the electoral dimension when he said the election would fundamentally concern “survival, security” and whether families could afford food and farmers could safely return to their farms.
Economy: GDP Recovery Versus Household Hardship
The economy could prove even more complicated for the opposition and the APC because both sides can point to credible evidence. On one hand, the numbers show that Nigeria’s economy is recovering.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that real GDP expanded by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.89 per cent in the first quarter.
The economy grew by 3.87 per cent in 2025, compared with 3.38 per cent in 2024. Oil production also improved, reaching an average of 1.72 million barrels per day in the second quarter, compared with 1.55 million barrels per day in the first quarter.
President Tinubu welcomed the figures, describing the growth as evidence that the economy was responding to his administration’s reforms and expressing confidence that stronger macroeconomic performance would follow. Moody’s has also revised Nigeria’s credit outlook from stable to positive, citing improved resilience, higher foreign-exchange reserves and stronger-than-expected economic growth.
The World Bank expects Nigeria to grow by about 4.2 per cent in 2026. Economic analyst Karim Noujaim of Skykapital Europe said Nigeria’s growth was being driven by domestic momentum and predicted that investment and structural reforms could improve business connectivity and worker productivity. But that is only one side of the story.
The NBS currently puts headline inflation at 15.43 per cent, while food inflation stands at 20.31 per cent. And for millions of Nigerians, the important question is not whether GDP is growing, but whether their income can buy more food, pay rent, cover transport costs and meet household bills.
A report by Reuters in August, stated that GDP per capita had fallen 53 per cent since 2015, from $2,586 to about $1,224, while Nigeria’s debt had climbed to N159.35 trillion by March 2026, from N12.6 trillion at the end of 2015.
The report also said almost 80 per cent of Nigerians surveyed believed the country was going in the wrong direction. SBM Intelligence analyst Cheta Nwanze described the political situation bluntly, saying: “The APC’s tenure from 2015 to 2026 makes for unhappy reading and Tinubu’s reforms have particularly brought severe pain.”
Atiku has seized on that disconnect between economic indicators and household experience. He argued that Nigerians would judge the government by their lived experience, insisting that people were poorer and more uncertain about their future. “Three years later, Nigerians are entitled to ask: where are those dividends?” he said.
Organised labour has made a similar argument. NLC President, Joe Ajaero said Nigerian workers and poor Nigerians were “bleeding” under what the union described as anti-people economic policies. The NLC has also demanded stronger protection for workers and rejected attempts to impose additional taxes on minimum-wage earners, describing such a policy as “unjust and insensitive” given the prevailing hardship.
The Presidency, however, argued that the pain is transitional. Presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga has defended the reforms as necessary measures that are now producing positive signals, saying: “The reforms are yielding many positive signals, which many international organisations have acknowledged.” This gives Tinubu an important counterargument going into the election: that reversing the reforms could return Nigeria to the fiscal instability that made them necessary. The opposition’s response will be that Nigerians cannot be asked indefinitely to sacrifice today for benefits that remain promises for tomorrow. That argument is likely to be central to the campaign.
US Drug Records: An Old Controversy Returns
The third issue carries a different kind of political risk because it concerns Tinubu’s past rather than the performance of his government.
The controversy centres on a 1993 civil forfeiture proceeding in the United States involving approximately $460,000 in funds connected to Tinubu. US court records cited in reporting show that the US Government had filed a forfeiture action involving bank accounts and that the parties eventually reached a settlement under which $460,000 was forfeited.
The current controversy, however, is not a new criminal prosecution against Tinubu. A fresh US Freedom of Information Act dispute concerns attempts to obtain records held by American law-enforcement agencies relating to the historical investigation. Tinubu’s lawyers have sought to prevent the release of some FBI and DEA records.
The Presidency has now moved aggressively to clarify the matter. Bayo Onanuga said the case is a “civil records-disclosure dispute” under the US Freedom of Information Act.: “It is not a criminal case against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, nor has the court found him guilty of any criminal wrongdoing,” he stressed. That distinction is crucial. Tinubu was not criminally charged in connection with the 1993 forfeiture.
A recent report also noted that he has consistently described the matter as a civil settlement. But politically, the opposition sees an opportunity.
A lawyer associated with Atiku has petitioned European institutions over what he described as questions surrounding Tinubu’s certificates and the $460,000 forfeiture linked to the 1993 US investigation.
The political danger for Tinubu is therefore not necessarily that the current US proceedings establish criminal wrongdoing (they do not), but that the litigation has reopened a controversy which his opponents can repeatedly place before voters.
The Presidency has consequently accused the opposition of deliberately mischaracterising the US proceedings. It insists that the US District Court for the District of Columbia, not Atiku or his associates, will ultimately determine whether records are released or withheld.
For the APC, the issue is an attempt to recycle an old controversy. For the opposition, it is a question of transparency. The dispute is likely to continue as long as the US litigation remains active.
Certificates: The Personal Credibility Battle
If the security debate attacks Tinubu’s performance and the economy attacks his policies, the certificate controversy goes directly to questions about personal credibility and constitutional eligibility.
The issue dates back to the 2023 election and the litigation involving Tinubu’s academic records from Chicago State University. It was revived this year after INEC published the documents submitted by presidential candidates for the 2027 election.
Opposition figures and groups subsequently raised questions over Tinubu’s academic credentials and his NYSC discharge certificate.
Atiku has now taken the matter back to court, asking that Tinubu be disqualified from the 2027 election over alleged discrepancies involving his NYSC certificate. A Federal High Court in Abuja has adjourned proceedings on the case until September 28, 2026.
The case relies in part on Section 137(1)(j) of the Constitution, which deals with a candidate who presents a forged certificate to INEC. But the allegation remains an allegation. No fresh judgment has established that Tinubu submitted a forged certificate.
The controversy has nevertheless continued because of conflicting claims that emerged during the earlier litigation over Tinubu’s Chicago State University records.
In September 2023, CSU’s lawyer told a US court that the university could not authenticate the specific diploma presented to INEC, saying the university could not say whether the document was genuine or forged.
The university had separately acknowledged that Tinubu attended the institution and graduated in 1979, making the dispute largely about the specific document and the surrounding records.
The opposition has used the controversy to question whether the President meets the constitutional standard expected of a presidential candidate.
The APC has rejected the allegations. Former Senate Leader Ali Ndume recently urged opposition parties to stop concentrating on Tinubu’s certificates and instead present their policies and plans to Nigerians. That is likely to become the APC’s broader strategy: portray the certificate controversy as a distraction from the substantive contest over governance.
But the opposition has little incentive to abandon it. Unlike a policy disagreement, a legal challenge over eligibility can continue independently of campaign speeches. And with the court proceedings still pending, the certificate issue could remain in the headlines deep into the election season.
The Opposition’s Opportunity And Its Weakness
Taken together, the four issues give the opposition a potentially powerful campaign narrative. Insecurity allows it to ask whether Nigerians are safer. The economy allows it to ask whether Nigerians are better off.
The US records controversy allows it to raise questions about transparency surrounding the President’s past. The certificate controversy allows it to question personal credibility and eligibility. But the opposition faces a problem of its own; it remains divided.
The coalition previously built around Atiku, Peter Obi, and other opposition figures has encountered internal disagreements. THEWILL earlier reported that the divisions could ultimately strengthen Tinubu by splitting the anti-incumbency vote. It also reported that Tinubu has consolidated significant political strength, including control of 31 of Nigeria’s 36 state governorships through APC membership and defections.
That means public dissatisfaction alone may not be enough to defeat the incumbent. The opposition must translate dissatisfaction into votes and, more importantly, convince Nigerians that it can unite around a credible candidate and programme.
The APC’s defence of Tinubu is built around continuity. The party argued that the President inherited a structurally weak economy and an entrenched security crisis and has undertaken reforms that previous governments avoided. It pointed to the 4.43 per cent second-quarter GDP growth, improved oil production, increased government revenue, stronger foreign-exchange reserves and the positive Moody’s outlook.
The administration has also expanded the military, invested in equipment and continued counter-terrorism operations. On the economic front, Onanuga has argued that the administration should be judged on the direction of travel rather than the immediate pain associated with the reforms. Tinubu himself has defended the reforms as necessary to restore economic stability.
The Presidency, therefore, hopes that by 2027 the benefits of the reforms will be sufficiently visible to outweigh the political damage caused by the early years of hardship.
For Tinubu, the election will therefore be a test of whether voters are prepared to endure the costs of his reforms in anticipation of longer-term prosperity.
For the opposition, it will be a test of whether it can convince Nigerians that the costs have become too high and that the APC has had enough time to deliver. And for the electorate, the questions may ultimately be brutally simple: Are Nigerians safer? Are they economically better off? Do they have confidence in the President’s personal record? And do they believe Tinubu deserves another four years?” Those four questions are likely to define the battle for Aso Rock in 2027.
Felix Ifijeh is a journalist with years of professional reporting experience. Known for his keen news sense, compelling storytelling and commitment to accurate, impactful reporting, he has built a reputation for turning leads into clear, engaging, and well-structured reports that resonate with readers. His work reflects deep newsroom experience and a commitment to accurate, impactful journalism.
