September 13, (THEWILL) – Golfers eventually learn that each of the 14 clubs they are permitted to carry can produce two very different numbers: the distance they might hit it on an exceptional strike and the distance they can reasonably expect it to travel. For those unfamiliar with golf, the clubs are designed for different distances and types of shots. A driver is generally used for the longest shots, while the irons are used for progressively shorter, more controlled shots as the golfer gets closer to the hole.
Knowing how far each club reliably sends the ball is therefore one of the foundations of sound decision-making on the course. A perfect strike can be useful to remember, but it is the repeatable number that should shape the decision. That distinction matters because golf makes comparison feel more urgent than it is.
Someone in your group launches a drive 20 metres beyond yours and suddenly a perfectly respectable shot can feel inadequate. The temptation is to swing harder than you should and try to produce somebody else’s number. Comparison gives us somebody else’s number; good judgement begins with knowing our own.
I have encountered the same tendency throughout my business and leadership career.
People sometimes make decisions less from what their circumstances require than from what they see others doing. A competitor enters a market, a colleague accepts a responsibility, an investment becomes fashionable, or a peer appears to be moving faster, and the question quickly becomes: Why are we not doing the same? That is where fear of missing out (FOMO) can become expensive. The fact that other people are excited does not tell you how much of your own capital, time or attention should follow.
Sound judgement requires knowing what fits your objectives, resources, risk appetite and responsibilities. The Dangote Refinery IPO provides a timely Nigerian example. The offer of 4.1 billion shares at N525 each is expected to raise about N2.15 trillion, with the minimum subscription set at just 10 shares. It has attracted considerable attention because it gives more Nigerians an opportunity to own a stake in one of the country’s most significant industrial assets.
There is much about the offer that is understandably compelling and in our investor relations practice we are advising clients to take positions. The scale of the refinery, its strategic importance, recent profitability and ambitious expansion plans all make it a significant proposition.
For investors who believe in that long-term story, the more useful question may therefore be not whether to participate, but how much to commit.That is where knowing your number becomes practical. How much capital can be allocated without disturbing other financial priorities? What proportion of an investment portfolio should reasonably sit in one opportunity? What return is expected, over what period, and with what tolerance for risk?
The minimum entry point may be accessible, but the appropriate allocation will differ from one investor to another, which is why conviction and calculation should travel together. The same principle applies in boardrooms. An initiative can be strategically attractive and still require discipline about scale, timing and resources.
A business may have enough money to enter a new market but not enough management attention to execute properly. A leader may have enough authority to accept another responsibility but not enough time to give it the attention it deserves. Some important numbers never appear on a balance sheet; they are measured in time, attention, energy, expertise and trust.
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There have been moments in my own professional life when an opportunity looked attractive and the instinct was to say yes because it appeared important to be involved. The better question was often how much of our resources the opportunity deserved relative to what we were already carrying. Good decisions are not grounded in optimism or pessimism; they are grounded in reality. That is the deeper value of knowing your number. It forces us to distinguish between what we can occasionally achieve and what we can consistently sustain.
A golfer may once have hit a seven-iron 155 metres, but if the reliable distance is 145, planning every shot around 155 is not ambition; it is miscalibration. The same principle applies to organisations. A business should distinguish between what it achieved once and what it can now repeat consistently. An exceptional result may have depended on favourable timing, unusual demand, exceptional people or a level of effort that cannot be sustained indefinitely. Before turning that result into a new baseline, leaders should understand what actually produced it.
Knowing your number also means accepting that it can change. Better systems, experience, a stronger team, technology, additional capital or improved technique can all increase what is realistically possible. A golfer who reliably hits a particular club 145 metres today may eventually make 150 metres dependable, but improvement has to become real before it becomes a sound basis for the next decision.
Golf offers a useful discipline here. When I know the distance I can trust, I do not need to envy the player whose ball travels farther because his number does not alter mine. I simply choose the club that gives me the best chance from where I am standing, given the conditions and the shot I need to play.
Business and life are not very different. FOMO often presents itself as urgency, but urgency is not always the same as importance. Some opportunities deserve significant commitment, others a measured allocation, and some may deserve very little at all. The discipline lies in knowing what proportion of your resources each truly merits. Before taking the next investment, promotion, appointment, partnership, or commitment, it may be worth asking whether you know your number: What can you reliably carry, what can you consistently deliver, what would healthily stretch you and what would leave too little room to do the things already entrusted to you properly?
Knowing your number does not stop you from trying to improve it; it simply stops you from pretending that today’s capability is something it is not. Ambition tells us what we might become, reality tells us what we can trust today and good judgement requires knowing the difference. Once you know your number, the next challenge is to trust it enough to commit to the shot.
•The author, Meka Niyi Olowola (FSPIN, FIMC), is a seasoned business leader and entrepreneur with three decades of experience and an avid golfer.
