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Brent recovered to $104.53 after falling towards $103 earlier on Monday.
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Traders weighed prospects of additional Russian fuel supplies.
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Ukrainian officials reported continuing attacks despite Trump’s ceasefire announcement.
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Nigeria’s fuel costs remain exposed to crude prices and the exchange rate.
October 12, (THEWILL) – Oil recovered most of its early losses on Monday, October 12, as uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s proposed Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire tempered expectations of improved supplies.
December Brent crude futures traded at $104.53 a barrel, down 0.2%, in a market update published at 8.58 am WAT. Earlier in the session, Brent had fallen towards $103 as traders assessed the prospect of more Russian fuel reaching international markets. Both figures are intraday prices.
The reversal left Nigeria facing much the same combination of expensive crude and uncertain fuel costs that preceded Monday’s trading. Higher oil prices can support export earnings, but they also increase the cost of the crude refineries buy to produce petrol and diesel.
A Ceasefire Announcement Meets Reports of Further Attacks
Trump said on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities. However, the announcement initially lacked confirmation from Moscow and surprised Kyiv, according to Reuters.
By Monday morning, Ukrainian officials were reporting further Russian strikes on energy infrastructure despite the announcement. Associated Press published those claims at 9.03 am WAT, adding to doubts about how the proposed arrangement would operate.
For oil traders, protection of refineries, storage facilities and export infrastructure could improve the reliability of supplies. But an announcement does not establish that attacks have stopped or that additional cargoes are available.
Meanwhile, persistent Middle East supply risks continued to weigh against expectations of more Russian diesel exports. Those competing developments helped produce a volatile opening to the trading week.
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Nigeria Still Faces a Costly Crude Market
For Nigerian producers, a sustained fall in oil prices would reduce the dollar value of each barrel sold, assuming unchanged production and sales terms. For refiners, cheaper crude could reduce feedstock costs, although purchases already contracted at higher prices would not immediately become cheaper.
Consumers therefore cannot translate a percentage fall in Brent directly into an equivalent reduction at filling stations. Exchange rates, refined-product prices, inventories, freight and distribution expenses also influence the price paid for petrol or diesel.
Monday’s recovery further reduced the size of the initial decline. Brent’s return above $104 meant the early fall towards $103 had not developed into a sustained price reduction by the latest market report reviewed.
For businesses budgeting for deliveries, transport or generator fuel, the relevant evidence will be revised supplier quotations and actual wholesale prices. A lower crude-market quote offers a possible source of relief, but does not establish that a Nigerian fuel supplier has reduced its charges.
Joy Onuorah is a business journalist and brand communications specialist covering financial markets, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and the ideas reshaping business across Africa and the global market. Beyond her reporting for TheWill, Joy uses brand strategy, storytelling, copywriting, and high-value SEO to help brands build lasting market authority.
