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Nigeria’s crude production rose from 1.50mbpd in August to 1.53mbpd in September
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Country exceeded its 1.5mbpd OPEC production quota for fifth consecutive month
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Third-quarter output averaged 1.512mbpd, sustaining recovery from first-quarter levels
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Production gains come as OPEC sharply lowers its 2026 global oil-demand growth forecast
October 13, (THEWILL) – Nigeria’s crude oil production rebounded to 1.53 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September, exceeding its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota of 1.5mbpd for the fifth consecutive month and strengthening signs of a sustained recovery in the country’s oil sector.
The September performance represented an increase of 30,000 barrels per day, or about two percent, from the 1.50mbpd recorded in August, according to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report released on Tuesday.
The latest figures are significant for Nigeria, which depends heavily on crude exports for foreign exchange and government revenue and has struggled in recent years with oil theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, operational disruptions and years of underinvestment.
OPEC data showed that Nigeria’s crude production averaged 1.512mbpd during the third quarter of 2026, slightly below the 1.525mbpd recorded in the second quarter but substantially higher than the 1.388mbpd average in the first three months of the year.
The figures indicate that despite month-to-month fluctuations, production has remained considerably stronger since the beginning of the second quarter.
Nigeria’s annual crude production has also been on an upward trajectory over the past two years. Average output increased from approximately 1.345mbpd in 2024 to 1.432mbpd in 2025, while the performance recorded so far in 2026 points to further recovery.
September’s increase from 1.50mbpd to 1.53mbpd means the country again surpassed its OPEC allocation of 1.5mbpd.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has separately reported improvements in the country’s broader liquids production, which includes condensates that are not counted against Nigeria’s OPEC crude quota.
In August, combined crude oil and condensate production stood at approximately 1.678mbpd, representing a 0.4 percent increase from the preceding month.
The distinction is important because OPEC’s quota applies to crude oil production and excludes condensates. Consequently, Nigeria’s total liquids production is typically higher than the crude-only figures used to determine compliance with its OPEC obligation.
FG Pushes For Higher Production
The improvement comes amid an intensified Federal Government drive to restore Nigeria’s oil production capacity and increase output from existing and new fields.
For years, the country has been unable to fully exploit its installed production capacity as widespread crude theft, vandalism, pipeline shutdowns, security challenges in oil-producing communities and declining investment disrupted operations.
The government and industry regulators have subsequently stepped up security around critical oil infrastructure, pushed for the reopening of previously shut facilities and encouraged fresh investment in upstream projects.
Those measures have contributed to a gradual improvement in production, although output remains below the more ambitious levels the government wants to achieve.
The Dangote Group has projected that Nigeria’s crude production could climb to about 1.72mbpd in the fourth quarter of 2026, with average output expected to reach approximately 1.62mbpd for the full year.
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Nigeria Retains Lead Among African OPEC Producers
Nigeria’s September performance also kept it ahead of other major African producers within OPEC.
According to the organisation’s figures, Libya produced about 1.391mbpd, while Algeria averaged approximately 1.007mbpd. Congo recorded about 300,000 barrels per day.
The numbers leave Nigeria as Africa’s largest crude producer within the oil producers’ group.
OPEC Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast
Nigeria’s production recovery is, however, unfolding against a weakening outlook for global crude demand.
OPEC has sharply reduced its forecast for global oil-demand growth in 2026, cutting the projection from about 1.4mbpd to 400,000 barrels per day — a reduction of more than 70 percent.
The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected demand growth during the year and adds another layer of uncertainty for oil-producing economies seeking to increase output.
The development means that while Nigeria is succeeding in raising production, the international market into which additional barrels would be sold faces softer demand conditions.
Oil prices and export volumes are particularly important to Nigeria because petroleum remains one of the country’s biggest sources of foreign-exchange earnings despite efforts to diversify the economy.
The global market has also been confronted by geopolitical uncertainty, including renewed security threats in the Middle East, adding volatility to the outlook for crude supply and prices.
Felix Ifijeh is a journalist with years of professional reporting experience. Known for his keen news sense, compelling storytelling and commitment to accurate, impactful reporting, he has built a reputation for turning leads into clear, engaging, and well-structured reports that resonate with readers. His work reflects deep newsroom experience and a commitment to accurate, impactful journalism.
