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Nigeria’s external reserves climbed to $55.25bn by September 18, enough to cover about 11.3 months of imports, while the Q2 current-account surplus rose 67.92 percent to $7.54bn.
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Economic growth accelerated to 4.43 percent in Q2, while August inflation eased to 15.39 percent, giving the CBN more room to loosen monetary conditions.
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The apex bank warned that slower global growth, Middle East tensions, trade fragmentation and election-related spending could threaten Nigeria’s disinflation path.
September 23, (THEWILL) – Nigeria has entered the final months of 2026 with stronger external and domestic buffers, but the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says a tougher global environment could still disrupt the improvement.
The assessment formed part of the Monetary Policy Committee’s September 21–22 meeting, which came as the apex bank reset the Monetary Policy Rate to 23 percent from 26.5 percent.
Rather than focusing only on the rate decision, the committee’s outlook points to a widening gap between improving domestic fundamentals and rising external risks.
Stronger Buffers Support Outlook
Nigeria’s gross external reserves reached $55.25 billion as of September 18, the highest level in 18 years and equivalent to about 11.3 months of imports of goods and services.
The external position also strengthened during the second quarter. The current-account surplus increased from $4.49 billion in Q1 to $7.54 billion in Q2, representing a 67.92 percent increase, while the overall balance-of-payments surplus rose from $2.38 billion to $3.51 billion.
The CBN said the improvement in external buffers and receding foreign-exchange pressures have strengthened macroeconomic stability.
Domestic activity is also showing greater momentum. Real GDP grew 4.43 percent in Q2, up from 3.89 percent in Q1.
Oil-sector growth accelerated to 7.31 percent from 2.57 percent, while the non-oil economy expanded 4.31 percent from 3.94 percent. August’s Purchasing Managers’ Index also rose to 52.7 points from 51.1, signalling continued expansion in business activity.
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Inflation Is Easing, But Risks Remain
The disinflation trend has also strengthened the CBN’s outlook.
Headline inflation declined to 15.39 percent in August from 15.43 percent in July. Food inflation fell to 19.57 percent from 20.31 percent, while core inflation moderated to 13.29 percent from 14.97 percent.
Month-on-month inflation slowed sharply to 0.71 percent from 1.57 percent.
The CBN expects inflation to moderate further as exchange-rate stability, the lagged effects of previous monetary tightening and improved food supply during the harvest season support lower price pressures.
But the committee is not treating the improvement as guaranteed.
Global Slowdown Could Complicate Nigeria’s Gains
The CBN projects global growth at 3.0 percent in 2026, down from 3.5 percent in 2025, citing the Middle East conflict, trade-policy uncertainty and constrained fiscal space.
It also warned that supply-chain disruptions, elevated crude and commodity prices and increasing trade fragmentation could keep global inflation risks tilted upwards.
For Nigeria, prolonged Middle East tensions could affect energy prices and external-sector conditions, while election-related spending could create additional domestic inflationary pressure.
Despite these risks, the CBN expects domestic output to remain resilient through the rest of 2026, supported by higher oil production, agriculture and broader business activity.
The implication is that Nigeria’s improved reserves, external balance, growth and disinflation have created more policy room, but sustaining those gains will depend increasingly on how the economy absorbs shocks from both the global environment and the domestic electoral cycle.
Ogochukwu Onwaeze is a writer specializing in business and economic journalism. At THEWILL News Media, she translates market trends, financial developments, and policy shifts into clear and engaging stories.
