The internal divisions that are threatening to shred the threads holding the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) together present an ominous foreboding for the chances of the party and its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, heading into next year’s general election.
The wisdom of the biblical injunction of Matthew 12:25 that “Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation and every city or house divided against itself will not stand,” is most instructive and the dramatis personae within the party, who have the progress and success of the party at the forthcoming polls, must take this as a dire warning.
The odds stacked against the PDP at the highest levels, the presidential elections, are staggering. From its loftiest place as the ruling party at Nigeria’s return to democracy and 16 years of unbroken domination of party politics at the centre of power, there was a time when party stalwarts regaled themselves with stories of how they were too big to be beaten and how they were going to be in power in Nigeria for 60 years, at least.
To take on the challenge posed by arguably Africa’s largest political party, opposition political parties knew they had to combine forces and resources. This decision was welcomed and was the basis for the formation of what became the All Progressives Congress (APC), which finally succeeded in wresting power from the PDP.
Formed in February 2013, the APC was the direct result of a merger of three largest opposition parties at the time, which were the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). These major parties were joined by a breakaway faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the new PDP – a faction of the then ruling PDP.
The resolution to merge was signed by ACN’s Tom Ikimi, Senator Annie Okonkwo on behalf of the APGA segment, Ibrahim Shekarau, the Chairman of ANPP’s Merger Committee; and Garba Shehu, the Chairman of CPC’s Merger Committee. On July 31, 2013, the new party of strange bedfellows, determined to take on the might of the PDP, received approval from the nation’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to become a political party with the subsequent withdrawal of the previous operating licences of the three major parties that merged.
With that combined force, they forged a union that continued to grow with the defections of mostly aggrieved members of the PDP. In November of the same year, five serving state governors from the governing PDP defected to the APC. They were Governors Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara State, Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State and Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto State.
Amid these defections, nearly 50 federal legislators, including the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, joined the party, adding to the 137 legislators in the APC as a result of the prior merger of the smaller opposition parties. It was but a dress rehearsal of what was to follow in the presidential election of 2015, in which Buhari emerged victorious over the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan by 2.6 million votes—a margin of nine percentage points.
The APC expanded its House of Representatives majority to over 210 seats and gained a majority in the Senate with 60 seats. In the state elections (mainly on April 11), APC won in 21 States and also won the majority of seats in the State Houses of Assembly.
While the PDP was determined to make Buhari a one-term president, APC’s direct primaries saw Buhari emerge as the sole candidate and he advanced to the general election where he defeated Atiku Abubakar of the PDP by a margin of 14 percentage points—nearly 4 million votes.
For the legislative elections, the APC regained its majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate after losing the majorities due to defections in 2018. On the state level, the party lost four States and gained two, leading to a net loss of two governors’ offices while winning a majority of State Houses of Assembly.
In off-year elections, the APC failed to get more state governors to win, although it retained the governorship position in Ekiti State in 2022. As a part of the party’s concerted effort to woo defectors, three governors joined the APC— Ebonyi State’s Dave Umahi, Cross River State’s Benedict Ayade and Zamfara State’s Bello Muhammad Matawalle—in 2020 and 2021, along with dozens of state and federal lawmakers. Yet, political moves around party primaries in 2022 erased most of these legislative gains as members defected out of the APC.
To defeat the PDP in the 2023 polls, the APC played the long game by trying to hold off decision-making until it could identify which way the PDP was going about touchy issues on zoning and the tribal affiliations of their candidates for the positions of President and Vice President.
Despite a contentious campaign period that was replete with allegations of misconduct and vote-buying of their own, the APC presidential primary of June 2022 was held peacefully with a former Governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu, defeating Rotimi Amaechi, Yemi Osinbajo and 11 other candidates. However, the party’s ticket became immensely controversial the following month when Tinubu selected Kashim Shettima—a Senator and former Governor of Borno State—as the APC’s vice presidential nominee; the selection created a Muslim-Muslim ticket, violating an unwritten convention against same religion tickets to ensure representative diversity.
It was in the process of Atiku’s emergence as the presidential flagbearer of the PDP and his choice for his vice presidential candidate that the fission of divisions worsened.
Atiku’s emergence was the first bone of contention for his major rival, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State. The latter helped to keep the PDP competitive in the years after they lost out in the power play of 2015 when Jonathan was defeated by Buhari.
From the largesse of his deep pockets, Wike supported the party financially and provided the resources that the party hierarchy needed to keep the levers turning. Meanwhile, Atiku, in 2014, defected to the APC, ahead of the 2015 presidential election, with the desire to become the party’s presidential candidate, but he lost in the primaries to the eventual winner Buhari. It is understandable, therefore, Wike’s initial angst over Atiku’s emergence. Yet, it was the issues that followed that muddied the waters irreconcilably.
It happened that the PDP set up a committee to pick a running mate for Atiku and although 14 of the 17 members of the committee voted for Wike to be Atiku’s running mate, the Adamawa chieftain instead went for Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State.
Wike, who felt slighted by the loss of the primaries, was even the worse for this latest move by Atiku. Fortunately for the Rivers governor, he had become an unavoidable force in the PDP. He extended the arm of his influence by getting the ardent support of four PDP governors with whom he subsequently formed the “Integrity Group,” comprising Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu) and Samuel Ortom (Benue).
The four state governors have held steadfastly to other grouses that Wike continues to hold against Atiku. One of these relates to Iyorchia Ayu, who is said to have agreed, when he was elected PDP Chairman, namely that if a northerner emerged as the presidential candidate of the party at the primaries, he would step down as chairman of the party so that a southerner can become chairman for the sake of balance and fairness.
However, Atiku got the ticket and Ayu’s story changed as he claimed to have been elected for a four-year term and was not ready to give up on his mandate.
Wike and his Group have made it clear that Ayu must vacate his position for peace to reign in the party.
With overtures to Wike rebuffed and the campaign period open, Atiku flagged off his campaign in Uyo in the conspicuous absence of Wike and his supporters, promising to address hunger, insecurity, disunity and to restructure the country into one that works for everybody.
While efforts continued to be made to pacify Wike, knowing his importance to the party, a counter position among some of the PDP governors is at play. Their position is that Atiku and the party must not yield to Wike’s demands and if they do, there will be trouble. This can only complicates things for Atiku and the party with the capacity to jeopardise their election chances with little wiggle room that is disappearing every day that passes without a solution.
It means that the Atiku campaign team is forced to divide its attention with one eye on the campaign and another on finding a solution that is agreeable for all the interests involved. The circumstances have been expectedly exploited by opposition campaigns which argue about what proposition that can be expected of a politician promising to be a unifier, but who can barely keep the unity of his own party together.
The warning is starkly obvious. It is already an uphill task to defeat the might of the ruling party as things currently stand.
Last month, a former National Chairman of the APC, Adams Oshiomhole, bragged about the strength of the party in power by rightly pointing to the number of state governors in their orbit as against those in Atiku’s corner.
Currently the APC can boast of 21 state governors, while the PDP, which should be contesting against that with a reduced strength of 14, is actually short by five due to the squabbles of the Group of 5. This is not good and I call on Atiku and the PDP to move mountains, make concessions, make sacrifices and do everything that is humanly possible to bring Wike back under the common fold of the party. Wike’s belligerence, flamboyance, flair and power to attract attention are all necessary ingredients that the Atiku campaign will need going into the elections. There is also the very deep pocket that Wike can bring in to keep in mind.
The fact that the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi, was in the PDP and ran on the 2019 ticket as Atiku’s vice presidential candidate means that Obi will split Atiku’s votes across the country to add the younger demographics that he appeals to. This will not work in Atiku’s favour. That is why this is the time to end the bickering, this is the hour to show leadership and bring the entire party on the same page. Time is fast running out to make this happen ahead of the 2023 polls.
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