…Battle Foretold, S/W Bid For Presidency in Grave Danger
…Buhari Leans Towards Hybrid Igbo As Successor
…Party Leaders, APC Governors, Stakeholders Await President’s Decision
April 17, (THEWILL) – Vice President Yemi Osinbajo’s declaration for the 2023 presidency has swiftly shifted the gravity of Nigerian politics to the South-West geo-political zone for obvious reasons. Apart from ending months of speculation, the declaration set up a titanic clash between him and his political godfather, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The big clash now looks inevitable. Why? In most mature democracies, a Vice President who signifies interest in running for the office of the president almost gets the nod of his party. However, this is not the case in Nigeria for now.
The coming days will bring about intense rivalry and horse-trading between the camp of the two gladiators.
THEWILL recalls that Tinubu, who is a former Lagos State governor, also reputed as the National Leader of the governing All Progressives Congress (APC), was the first presidential aspirant to inform President Muhammadu Buhari of his intention to contest the 2023 election early in the year. He was the only visible and viable aspirant from the South-West when Osinbajo’s aspiration was still in the realm of speculation. Given his larger-than-life image in the governing APC, which has committed itself to zoning the presidency to the South, with the South-West as its strongest base, Tinubu was almost sure of winning the party’s primary.
What actually made Osinbajo’s declaration for presidency the boxing ring equivalent of a TKO, THEWILL can authoritatively reveal, was that it drove the Tinubu camp into a frenzy, particularly when the declaration was accompanied by nation-wide rave reviews across various media platforms in the country.
“Are you surprised by that?” an associate of both VP Osinbajo and Tinubu, asked in a brief interview with THEWILL. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, he said, “Vice President Osinbajo made a declaration while Tinubu informed the President of his intention to contest the presidency and then said he was embarking on consultation. He is yet to make a formal declaration to contest. There is a big difference there.”
When reminded that the Jagaban has since crossed that bridge by holding meetings with stakeholders and political bigwigs, even across political parties, the source drew attention to Tinubu’s statement when he addressed journalists that he would declare his intention after consulting widely.
“Has he done that?” the source asked, rhetorically.
THEWILL investigation shows that before declaring his intention to contest in the presidential election, Osinbajo had done a lot of consultations preparatory to informing President Buhari, who reportedly told him “He is qualified to contest”, according to one source.
With a combination of deft manoeuvres involving the use of shadow campaign groups (with the Progressive Consolidation Group officially recognised by the APC) that went round the country sensitising Nigerians to an Osinbajo presidency and an in-house poll conducted by APC groups confirming his above average popularity and acceptability among the grassroots, especially admirers of the ‘Trader Moni’ distributor, the Vice President had been waiting for the auspicious time to declare his intention.
Coming after the APC national convention, which laid to rest fears of a possible implosion of the party, the declaration had the energising effect of putting in the public domain those odd months of brewing rivalry between the duo, no thanks to many websites and vibrant campaign groups.
POWER IS NOT SERVED A LA CARTE
Tinubu is known to have used this phrase on power frequently so that it should make sense to followers and supporters of what is going on between him and his former godson, VP Osinbajo and former Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice in Lagos State.
As the strongest electoral zone for the APC in Southern Nigeria, with five out of six state governors and a 37 per cent voter strength, compared to 21 per cent for the South-South and 11 per cent for the South-East, the South-West is in strong contention for the presidency on the platform of the APC, which is yet to decide what form of election to choose its presidential candidate. This political advantage has made the contest in the South-East a tough fight for aspirants.
The aspirants know that yielding any quarter to the opponent, leaving a knock unanswered, mobilising without direction, lacking in structure and war chest and failure to consult widely would be the wrong way to grab power a la carte.
Clearly, between both men, Tinubu appears stronger, but with the national figure recently cut by his declaration, Osinbajo appears to have broadened his appeal to at least a wider audience. Tinubu unambiguously has a political structure and a large war chest. He has also sustained a well-oiled consultation among the grassroots, particularly women who are bandwagon voters, traditional rulers and market women through his daughter, who is the leader of market women in Lagos State. But a great political challenge is facing him at present. The pervading sentiment in the South-West is that people are tired of the name, Tinubu, which has been ringing in their consciousness since his tenure as Governor of Lagos State in 1999, through the ‘anointing’ of governors Babatunde Fashola (SAN) for two terms, Akinwunmi Ambode for one term and the incumbent governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
The breakthrough that Tinubu had in 2007 when he stood against the then President Olusegun Obasanjo’s ultimate scheme to take over Lagos for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) like other states in the geopolitical zone, has waned. And with that, his dominance is being aggressively challenged by Muiz Banire, one-time Commissioner for the Environment and a former Legal Adviser of the APC, campaign managers for most governors in the state, Fuad Oki and a group that is now known as the Abuja Collective, compromising those who jumped the proverbial ship after they got federal appointments.
The same sentiment has since spread to Ekiti State, whose governor, Kayode Fayemi, is eyeing the presidency too. It has also spread to Ondo, Oyo, which is under a PDP administration, and Ogun, the Vice President’s home state. Osinbajo moved his membership of the APC from Lagos to the Ogun State Chapter during the registration and revalidation exercise of the party in February 2021.
Except for Lagos under Sanwo-Olu and Osun State where his nephew, Governor Gboyega Oyetola, holds sway, it is hard to find a South-West state where Tinubu’s popularity is still as it was many years ago when he was seen as a visionary leader. Moreover, at 70 years, age is not on his side.
With these challenges, many are beginning to see through things clearly. For instance, it is easy to separate Tinubu from the APC in the South-West and say that the forthcoming APC primary belongs to the party and not the man, meaning that opposition to Tinubu does not translate into hatred for the party in the South-West.
TINUBU’S DECLINING FORTUNE
Tinubu’s new public persona has gradually filtered through the South-West to other parts of the country. It resonated with the attendance of his 70 birthday colloquium in Lagos recently. Beside Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano, Oyetola of Osun and host governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, most prominent politicians stayed away. Latching onto the previous day’s Abuja-Kaduna train bombing by terrorist, he had to save his face by canceling the celebration.
His recent unproductive meeting with the governors of the party in Abuja, after Osinbajo’s declaration also points to his declining fortune with the party stakeholders. But as dogged as ever, he is forging ahead. Among the meetings to rally support for his cause was last Wednesday’s rally with some past and current Speakers of Houses of Assembly in the country
For VP Osinbajo, his electoral value as shown in the woeful performance of the APC in his former Victoria Garden City ward in Lagos in previous elections has been touted as a big minus. True. That means he lacks structure and refused to make use of wads of cash. But there is a catch here.
There is palpable fear in Tinubu’s camp that Osinbajo has a joker in his bag following his audacious declaration. This is what is unsettling the Jagaban and his supporters.
With the presidential primary of the APC set to hold next month, the president is expected to inform the party’s top leadership and APC State Governors of his preferred successor any moment from now.
In a television interview last year, President Buhari said he had a preferred candidate, but refused to disclose his name for fear that he might be assassinated. Were Osinbajo to be Buhari’s candidate, which is highly unlikely with the feelers from the presidential villa, then there would be no need to worry about the challenge posed by structure and war chest.
Probably for fear of fueling the ongoing confrontation, many aides and supporters of either party are unwilling to be quoted. The Senior Special Adviser to the Vice President on Media, Laolu Akande, asked for questions to be sent to his WhatsApp handle and never got back to our correspondents. Former Minister of Works and Tinubu supporter, Senator Adeseye Ogunlewe, terminated the call immediately he heard the questions had to do with the presidential race between Tinubu and Osinbajo.
Investigation further revealed that the biggest opposition to both Osinbajo and Tinubu in their presidential bid is the Presidency. The President’s very close aides and top advisers are said to be strongly opposed to Asiwaju grabbing the APC presidential ticket. Since the re-election of President Buhari in 2019, they have been pulling all the stops to frustrate and prevent him from realising his presidential ambition, multiple sources informed THEWILL.
THEWILL recalls his wife, Senator Oluremi Tinubu’s famous diatribe against the party’s minders when she said in a published interview: “They have trashed my husband.”
The thrashers are enjoying the seeming face-off between him and Osinbajo and would support the VP if that is what is required to stop Tinubu’s lifelong ambition to be President of Nigeria.
As for Osinbajo, our checks revealed that the president’s men influenced the complete removal of the multi-billion naira social programmes of the administration from the Vice President’s control after their reelection in 2019. “The Vice President is clearly not a favourite of the President or his clique,” a source very close to one of the president’s top advisers told THEWILL.
VP’S SELLING POINT
One of the key selling points for the Vice President in the South-West, nay Nigeria, which is also giving his rival the jitters is his status as late Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s in-law. His wife, Dolapo is a granddaughter of the first Premier of the Western Region, Opposition Leader in the Parliament during the first republic and Minister of Finance in the civil war years.
This also appears to have intensified the ongoing fight. Matters are not helped when it is recalled that the matriarch of Awolowo family, Mrs. Hannah Dideolu Awolowo, had said, in one of her last interviews before her death in September 2015, that the young Osinbajo once sat on her husband’s lap and would one day become President of Nigeria.
Speaking with THEWILL on Osinbajo’s declaration, one of his arch supporters and an Abuja-based Constitutional lawyer, Dr Kayode Ajulo, said, “You know when it comes to politics, there are many different conspiracy theories that will come out either genuinely or non-genuinely. Many people are jittery now, they felt so bad that the right person, the right candidate, is here. As long as his entry in the presidential race is going to affect their chances, they will look for everything under the sun to conjure every permutation, just to demarket the party and the candidate. I think this is their game plan.
“What matters most, is that the best candidate and the most experienced candidate is Osinbajo. Apart from that, he is the most experienced aspirant today. Politically, he is the most experienced. Then when you talk of intellectual prowess, he is there. This is a man that started in the 1980s, being in one form or the other of the executive positions from the time of Teslim Elias, to the time of Prince Bola Ajibola as the Attorney-General of the Federation to Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu and then to President Buhari. Show me any of the aspirants who have achieved this?
“So all this noise about polarising South-West delegates’ votes and so on, I don’t want us to believe that. He is contesting for the Nigerian presidency, not as President of the South-West.”
Also speaking with THEWILL, the Publicity Secretary of the Lagos State APC, Mr Seye Oladejo, said he had no problem with Osinbajo’s declaration for the 2023 presidency.
“There is no problem. We knew he was going to declare. They should allow us to go to the primary. Let him come and face Asiwaju (Tinubu). There is no problem. I am not worried at all. We acknowledge his constitutional right to contest. We also observed keenly how he struggled to paint his role in the past eight years in gold. At a time, l thought I was listening to a dirge until I realised it was a political declaration in a living room. Nigerians will have something to say about the scorecard in the fullness of time. The last time I checked, the Vice President was in charge of the economy.
“The only demand is for us to go to the primary. Let us see how much support Osinbajo can garner from the party members. This is someone who could not even win his polling booth. I’m not aware of any change in political relevance and popularity since the last elections. I want to congratulate him for finally summoning the courage to throw his hat in the ring.
“We know that Nigerians at this time need a prepared president, who has paid his dues in enthroning democracy, mentoring potential leaders and being a destiny helper to numerous people, aside from being the reference point for good governance in Nigeria.
“Asiwaju has a lot of support across the country. There are many people who will come out to support him all over the country, even more in the North than the South. So, we will be ready.”
PARTING OF WAYS?
The Osinbajo-Tinubu political face-off looks destined to fulfill the saying that politics make friends strange bedfellows. With the VP moving his party membership from Lagos to a Ward in Ogun, his home state, the point of no return for their friendship may have begun, except for courtesies at public functions.
The friction between both men is so bad that Ajulo called on prominent political leaders in the South-West to intervene and restore order between Osinbajo and Tinubu, fearing that the supremacy battle may affect the politics of the geopolitical zone to the extent of reducing its current influential standing in national politics.
“It is no news that Tinubu and his foremost loyalist, Osinbajo, do not have unfriendly feelings towards each other, but many of their followers and lackeys have started throwing bricks of words across walls and this is certainly an invitation to crisis. Yoruba leaders must put their differences aside and hold a conference of Yoruba stakeholders, who have the interest of the South-West at heart, to discuss the way forward,” he said.
Oladejo disagrees that it is not solely a South-West thing, but a national game plan.
“We know Osinbajo is just a pawn on the chessboard of some game-masters. The message in the fact that this declaration came during the Holy Week is definitely not lost on all and sundry,” he said.
BUHARI LEANS TOWARDS HYBRID IGBO AS SUCCESSOR
Feelers from the presidency suggest that President Buhari is strongly leaning towards the Igbos for his successor according to at least two sources familiar with the thinking of the president and his close advisers.
According to one of the sources, the President wants to address the marginalization clamour of the Igbos but would rather support an Igbo aspirant from a minority state in the South-South region that he trusts would be able to manage Biafra secessionists and end their agitation.
*** By Amos Esele and Ayo Esan
About the Author
Amos Esele is the Deputy Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
