- Why good judgement requires more than knowing where you want to go
October 11, (THEWILL) – There is a particularly humbling experience in golf. You can execute two excellent shots, find yourself comfortably on the putting green, and still walk away wondering how you managed to make such a mess of the hole. The ball is only a few metres from the cup. Nothing stands between you and success, or so it appears. Yet the seemingly straightforward putt curves away at the last moment, leaving you staring at the ground as though it has personally betrayed you.
For those less familiar with golf, putting is the final stage of a hole, when a player uses a specialised club to roll the ball across closely mown grass towards the cup. The challenge is that a green is rarely perfectly flat. Its subtle slopes and variations in speed influence the ball’s direction. A putt aimed directly at the hole may miss because the ground beneath it is quietly directing it elsewhere. The golfer must therefore read the green, assessing not simply where the ball should finish, but how the terrain will influence its journey.
The destination may be perfectly clear, yet the route to it may be anything but.
Last week, I reflected on the importance of recovering from poor decisions rather than becoming imprisoned by them. Using the experiences of Kodak, NITEL and a golfer attempting to recover from a bad shot, I explored why our next decision matters more than our attachment to the previous one. But recovery presents another challenge. Once we have accepted where we stand, how accurately do we understand the conditions confronting us?
Reading a green demands a different temperament from striking a powerful drive. The drive rewards confidence, coordination and commitment. Putting demands those qualities too, but adds patience, observation and sensitivity to influences that are not immediately obvious. Sometimes, I walk around the hole to examine a putt from another angle. What looked perfectly straight from behind the ball may reveal a pronounced slope when viewed from the opposite direction. The ground has not changed. My understanding of it has.
The distinction matters far beyond golf. In business, we devote considerable energy to defining ambitious destinations: market leadership, geographic expansion, technological transformation or financial independence. We establish targets, mobilise resources and demand execution. Yet even compelling ambitions can falter when leaders misunderstand the environment through which they must be achieved. A promising investment may be undermined by regulatory developments. A capable executive may struggle because an organisation’s culture resists the changes its leadership advocates.
The temptation is to respond by applying greater force. Increase the budget. Intensify the campaign. Demand faster execution. Replace the people. Sometimes, these interventions are necessary. But occasionally, we are simply hitting the ball harder when we should be reconsidering the slope.
Consider the remarkable rise of Moniepoint in Nigeria’s financial services industry. While digital banking attracted considerable attention, the company recognised something fundamental about the Nigerian market: millions of small businesses needed reliable transactions and accessible financial services, not merely another sophisticated application. Its early research among payment agents in Lagos, revealed persistent difficulties with transaction reconciliation. By addressing practical problems and building an extensive distribution network, Moniepoint turned an underserved market into an extraordinary commercial opportunity. Its success illustrates the value of understanding the terrain from the customer’s perspective rather than assuming that an attractive technological solution automatically meets market needs.
This capacity to recognise what others overlook is increasingly important. In her insightful book, Seeing Around Corners, Columbia Business School professor Rita McGrath argues that major turning points in business rarely arrive without warning. Their early signals are frequently visible before their consequences become obvious. The difficulty is that leaders become so invested in familiar assumptions that they overlook what is changing around them. Her argument resonates with reading a green. The most consequential slopes are not necessarily the most visible, and recognising them early can distinguish an informed decision from an expensive miscalculation.
There is also a human dimension. Organisations, like putting surfaces, contain influences not always visible from the decision-maker’s position. An executive may announce a reasonable transformation programme without recognising employees’ anxieties. A government may introduce a technically sound policy without appreciating the realities confronting those it intends to serve. A business may launch an excellent product without understanding its customers’ purchasing constraints. In each case, the destination may be desirable, but the journey has been misunderstood.
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One of golf’s more interesting disciplines is balancing the line and pace of a putt. The line determines its direction; the pace determines how much the slope influences its movement. A firmly struck putt may travel relatively straight, while a gentler stroke may curve considerably more. Both can succeed, but the right line with the wrong pace can be as costly as the wrong line altogether.
Leadership presents a similar challenge. The right strategy can fail through poor timing or excessive intensity. Move too slowly and opportunities disappear; too aggressively and the organisation may struggle to adapt. Good judgement requires knowing not only what to do, but how and when to do it.
Experience helps, but can also become a liability. Familiar greens behave differently with changing weather and conditions. Likewise, executives may apply previously successful solutions to fundamentally different circumstances. Experience becomes wisdom only when it remains open to fresh evidence.
Reading a green also demands humility. Appearances can deceive, and examining a problem from different perspectives improves judgement. Yet excessive analysis can be equally damaging. Golfers sometimes study a putt so extensively that they lose confidence in executing it. Leaders similarly risk paralysis through endless consultation. Discernment should strengthen commitment, not postpone it.
Ultimately, effective leadership requires both conviction and curiosity. Conviction provides direction; curiosity reveals context. Without curiosity, conviction becomes rigidity. Without conviction, curiosity becomes indecision.
As I prepare to make a difficult putt, I remind myself that the hole does not move to accommodate my preferred line. Neither do markets, institutions or human realities rearrange themselves because our ambitions are sincere. We must recognise the forces at work, distinguish those we can influence from those we cannot, and decide accordingly.
The next time you confront an important decision, consider whether you have examined the terrain as carefully as you have defined the destination. Have you listened to perspectives beyond your own? Have you considered the timing and pace of your intended action? Are you responding to conditions as they exist, or as you would prefer them to be?
After all, on the golf course as in life, sometimes the difference between a brilliant decision and a disappointing outcome is not the quality of the execution, but the quality of the reading.
By Meka Olowola
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The author, Meka Niyi Olowola (FSPIN, FIMC), is a seasoned business leader and entrepreneur with an avid interest in golf.
