October 12, (THEWILL) – Against the backdrop of full blown electioneering ahead of the 2027 General Election, the Presidency and the Presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Atiku Abubakar on Sunday renewed their public dispute over the latter’s proposal for production fuel subsidy.
The governing All Progressives Congress, APC, last week announced the official kick-off of its presidential campaign in Kaduna on October 24, while the opposition ADC officially inaugurated its Presidential Campaign Council in Abuja at the weekend.
The recent dispute followed Atiku’s press conference in Abuja, during the constitution of ADC’s PCC. At the event, the former Vice President criticised the 30-day discount on petrol by the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, retail and price modulation framework, describing it as President Bola Tinubu’s political gimmick.
“Bola, you have borrowed the idea but missed the lesson. You had a production subsidy and reduced it to a 30-day gesture.” Atiku said, adding: “You copied my production subsidy proposal. Nothing wrong about that. You stripped away the part that makes it work and handed Nigerians a 30-day discount.”
Reacting on Sunday, the Presidency described Abubakar’s proposed production subsidy on petrol as “a dangerous mathematical fantasy wrapped in political deceit.”
According to the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communications, Sunday Dare, Atiku Abubakar’s recent press conference in Abuja—where he attacked NNPCL Retail’s 30-day discount on petrol price and a modulation framework—is a seminal example of shallow, election-laced demagoguery.
Dare said, “To propose a blanket “targeted production subsidy” on crude without the physical, unencumbered volume to back it up is pure economic illiteracy. It invites the very opacity, fraudulent round-tripping and fiscal haemorrhage that crippled Nigeria for decades under the old subsidy regime.
“Calling a calibrated, multi-layered economic stabilisation strategy a “panic-driven gimmick” reveals more than partisan bitterness; it exposes a profound, structural ignorance of global energy dynamics, fiscal mechanics and the plain arithmetic of modern Nigeria.” Dare said, adding, “ Atiku’s proposal for a blanket “production subsidy” is not an alternative economic model—it is a dangerous mathematical fantasy wrapped in political deceit”.
According to him, the Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Minister of Finance Taiwo Oyedele clearly articulated on Channels TV, that Nigeria currently produces about 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) for a population of over 200 million people. Simplistic populists like Atiku deliberately deceive citizens by pretending that the Federal Government directly owns all 1.8 million barrels and can distribute or discount them at will.
Dare said, “Under complex Joint Ventures (JVs) and Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) signed over decades, production costs, royalties and profit-oil sharing ratios severely reduce the equity crude available to the state. After accounting for these statutory and contractual obligations, Nigeria has fewer than 700,000 barrels per day of unencumbered “free crude” to give away.
“Mega-refineries like the Dangote Petroleum Refinery require immense daily feedstock that far exceeds what the state can freely provide without breaching existing international supply contracts or bankrupting national revenues. Consequently, Dangote and other domestic refiners must supplement local supplies by importing crude from international markets.”
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He argued that Atiku’s attempt to frame NNPC Retail’s decision to forgo its profit margin as a “return to the fuel subsidy” is a deliberate mischaracterisation designed to mislead the public and incite public dissatisfaction, disclosing that NNPC had offered the discount to celebrate the 66th Independence anniversary. It merely offered to extend the discount by another 30 days.
Dare further stated that the administration’s intervention is a market-smoothing price modulation framework, not a return to unbudgeted federal spending. When NNPC Retail agrees to sell fuel at landing cost for 30 days during an unprecedented global crude price spike, it is not writing checks to opaque import cartels. It is leveraging its corporate balance sheet to absorb short-term global volatility, backed directly by President Bola Tinubu.
”Furthermore, the Federal Government’s negotiation of an interim N1,350 per litre ceiling on ex-gantry costs is a structural shock absorber, not price control. Under this framework, refiners and importers absorb short-term cost spikes above the ceiling and recover those costs later when global crude prices cool or local exchange rates adjust. N1,400 today and N1,400 tomorrow provides far greater economic stability than N1,500 today and N1,300 tomorrow.”
In a swift reaction on Sunday night, Atiku Abubakar’s Media Adviser, Paul Ibe described Dare’s latest intervention in the debate over petrol prices “as remarkable for its insults, contradictions and selective presentation of economic facts.According to Ibe, Dare deliberately misrepresents Atiku’s production-based subsidy proposal.
“Atiku has not proposed distributing Nigeria’s entire crude production free of charge. His proposal concerns targeted, transparent support for domestic refining, with safeguards to ensure that consumers benefit from lower production costs,” he said. On his principal’s proposed production subsidy on fuel, Ibe said there were legitimate questions about the available crude volumes, the cost of the concession and the legal framework, saying that details would be unveiled when the framework is eventually made public.
However, he said that Dare’s claim that fewer than 700,000 barrels of crude are available to the government does not, by itself, establish that a carefully limited intervention is impossible.
He said, “Let him publish the calculations, contractual obligations and proposed alternative allocations. Tinubu’s discount has a fundamental problem of coverage and fairness. NNPCL Retail operates a little over 900 outlets in a country with an estimated 22,681 filling stations. That represents approximately four per cent of the retail network.What happens to Nigerians who live in communities without an NNPCL filling station? What happens to commercial transporters who must travel considerable distances to access the discount?
“And what assurance is there that the temporary reduction will translate into lower transport fares, food prices and operating costs? A petrol intervention that reaches selected filling stations cannot automatically be presented as nationwide relief.”
According to Ibe, the argument that government money is not involved deserves closer examination. He said that NNPC Limited is government-owned. Its assets and earnings ultimately have implications for the federation, including the dividends potentially payable to its public shareholders.
If NNPC Retail forgoes its profit margin, he further said, there is an economic cost or opportunity cost, even if there is no direct payment from the federal budget.
“Whether higher sales offset that cost is a separate question. Calling it a discount does not make the financial implications disappear.”
Felix Ifijeh is a journalist with years of professional reporting experience. Known for his keen news sense, compelling storytelling and commitment to accurate, impactful reporting, he has built a reputation for turning leads into clear, engaging, and well-structured reports that resonate with readers. His work reflects deep newsroom experience and a commitment to accurate, impactful journalism.
