Sixteen days to the D-day, the picture of political parties in Nigeria is becoming clearer. From my tea leaves I see a one party state in Nigeria after the elections. What is not clear yet is what the name of the party will be PDP or APC.
The reason for this prognosis is the behavior of our politicians. Everyday there are changes in alliances. One sees APC believers instantly turn into PDP hot shots and the next instance dogged PDP believers become APC henchmen. It goes on at every level. Keeping followers on track has become the greatest challenge for both GEJ and GMB.
Why is this so?
1. There is no under pinning ideology binding the party partisans. Without a strong set of beliefs people come and go as they like and as opportunity is seen or lost. In other climes and at other times a common belief system holds members together. Remember that Awolowo’s Action Group lost all elections to be at the center (Lagos) but it remained a strong party until it was castrated by the military. When politics was once more allowed it emerged under a different name waxing as strong as before. It again lost elections. By the time 1999 came back the core members had died away, or have become too old and that is when it actually died. The same can be said of Zik’s NCNC, Tarka’s Middle Belt Alliance, and other old Nigeria’s parties like NEPU. In other countries a strong belief in limited government or a stronger role of government unite party members. When they lose elections they embark on ways to win next time. One can apply the same qualities to religion, or large corporations. In the absence of a strong common belief system a party fades at the first failure to scale a hurdle.
2. The second reason why Nigeria will become a one party state is that in reality there has not been a multiple party before. I challenge anybody to show me how APC is different from PDP other than by the names of the leadership. Use any yardstick you find necessary to measure: corruption, ideology, management experience, history of party members, concern for the common person, anything. What the 2015 election will confirm is this absence of different political parties.
We will get the first idea of what the name of the party will be on March 28, 16 days from now or as soon as INEC declares the winner in the presidential election. Once this is known the defection to the president’s party would begin and turn into a flood after the governorship elections are completed. What would be most interesting is that even the winners of the opposition parties would join the winning party. Under the law the turncoats would not be allowed to defect, but the losing party would be so weak that it could not muster the resources to go to court. It happened before and will happen again.
Why am I so sure that this would happen?
a. I have already alluded to the lack of beliefs.
b. The second is the amount of investment in the campaigns. If people were not investing in the pursuit of an ideology, they must be investing in the pursuit of something else. That something else is to obtain a position to entrench themselves where there is opportunity to milk the motherland. And since Nigeria’s politics is winner take all then politicians would move over to the one who has it all and who can dole out rewards. If one has invested N1 billion to get GMB elected and he lost it is quite easy to turn to GEJ and apologize and promise to be a good boy/girl. The same for those who invested a comparable amount to get GEJ elected.
c. The third point is that Nigerians have short memory and shorter moral codes. Mr. Fani Kayode is an example and OBJ is the poster child of this short memory and shorter moral code. One went from APC to PDP and the other went from PDP to APC. Each was a stalwart in his earlier party. OBJ was a founding father of PDP and ruled on the party’s platform for 8 years and did not have any qualms when he, in public, shredded his PDP membership card. Can anyone imagine Zik, Awo, Enahoro, Okpara, etc., doing such a thing? OBJ did it signifying the lower caliber of leadership we now have: destroying the temple one built. It is like Christ shredding his Christian card or Mohamed denying Islam.
So my fellow Nigerians you read it first from this journey man writer Obi Aduba who hopes that he is wrong. A government without a strong opposition will fail its people. This is my principle reason for wishing that I am a false prophet.
Written by Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba.
