-
Nigeria produced an estimated 402.86 million barrels of crude oil between January and September 2026, with a gross value of about $39.15bn.
-
The estimated naira value peaked at ₦7.54trn in April, when Bonny Light averaged $126.71 per barrel.
-
The ₦52.11trn estimate represents the gross value of production, not revenue earned by the Federal Government.
October 20, (THEWILL) – Nigeria produced an estimated 402.86 million barrels of crude oil between January and September 2026, with the output valued at approximately ₦52.11 trillion based on monthly average production rates, Bonny Light prices and an exchange rate of ₦1,331 to the dollar.
Calculations based on data from the Central Bank of Nigeria put the gross value of the nine-month production at about $39.15bn before conversion to naira.
The estimate was derived by multiplying each month’s average daily production by the number of days in the month and applying the corresponding monthly average Bonny Light crude oil price. It covers crude oil alone and excludes condensate and natural gas.
The figures represent the estimated value of crude produced by all operators, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, international oil companies and indigenous producers. They do not represent the amount received by the Federal Government.
Oil Prices Drive Monthly Value Higher
The estimated value of Nigeria’s crude production fluctuated considerably during the nine months, reflecting changes in both output and international oil prices.
January’s production of 45.26 million barrels was valued at approximately $3.08bn, equivalent to ₦4.10 trillion. In February, output fell to 36.68 million barrels, the lowest monthly volume in the period, while its estimated value declined to $2.65bn, or ₦3.53 trillion.
The value rose sharply in March as Bonny Light averaged $106.09 per barrel, compared with $72.33 in February. The 42.78 million barrels produced in March were valued at approximately $4.54bn, or ₦6.04 trillion.
April recorded the highest estimated monthly value, at $5.66bn, equivalent to ₦7.54 trillion. Production stood at 44.70 million barrels, while the average price of Bonny Light climbed to $126.71 per barrel.
Although production increased to 47.43 million barrels in May, the highest monthly volume during the period, the estimated value fell to $5.34bn, or ₦7.11 trillion, as the average crude price eased to $112.63 per barrel.
In June, output was estimated at 46.80 million barrels, valued at $4.13bn, or ₦5.50 trillion, as the benchmark price declined to $88.24 per barrel.
The estimated value remained lower in July, when 46.81 million barrels were valued at $3.97bn, equivalent to ₦5.28 trillion, with Bonny Light averaging $84.81 per barrel.
Prices recovered in August and September, lifting the estimated value of production. August’s 46.50 million barrels were valued at $4.40bn, or ₦5.86 trillion, while September’s 45.90 million barrels were worth approximately $5.38bn, equivalent to ₦7.16 trillion.
September’s value was the second-highest monthly estimate after April, despite production remaining below the peak recorded in May.
READ ALSO:
Geopolitical Tensions Influence Crude Prices
The monthly estimates also reflect substantial movements in oil prices during the period, particularly amid developments involving the United States and Iran.
Bonny Light averaged $68.05 per barrel in January before rising to $72.33 in February. Prices climbed to $106.09 in March as tensions escalated following the outbreak of the US-Iran crisis on February 28.
The benchmark rose further to $126.71 per barrel in April before easing to $112.63 in May and $88.24 in June following a ceasefire agreement between Tehran and Washington.
Prices subsequently declined to $84.81 in July before rebounding to $94.64 in August and $117.12 in September as the ceasefire agreement collapsed.
The movements meant that the estimated value of monthly production did not depend on output alone. Changes in the benchmark price substantially affected the dollar value of the crude produced.
Gross Production Value Differs From Government Revenue
Despite the estimated ₦52.11 trillion value, the amount cannot be interpreted as oil revenue available to the Federal Government.
The calculation does not deduct production costs or account for royalties, taxes, crude allocations, domestic consumption, actual export volumes and other financial obligations associated with oil production.
Consequently, the estimate measures the gross market value of crude produced during the period rather than the proceeds collected by the government or the net earnings of individual oil producers.
Actual government receipts depend on several factors, including the fiscal terms governing production, the volumes sold or allocated, operating costs and the timing of payments.
The distinction is important when assessing the contribution of crude oil to public finances, as the gross value of production is not equivalent to the revenue available to fund the national budget.
The nine-month estimates nevertheless illustrate the scale of Nigeria’s crude oil production and the extent to which movements in international prices can affect the value attributed to output, even when monthly production volumes change relatively modestly.
Ogochukwu Onwaeze is a writer specializing in business and economic journalism. At THEWILL News Media, she translates market trends, financial developments, and policy shifts into clear and engaging stories.
