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Opposition to War Grows
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ECOWAS States’ Debt Crisis May Affect Ability to Fund War if Prolonged
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Economic Sanctions on Niger Grinds Economy to a Halt
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War May Destabilise Sahel – Experts
West African military chiefs have agreed to meet in the days ahead to draw up a plan on the best way to set in motion the directive of ECOWAS leaders to deploy a standby force as an option against the Nigerien junta.
Having met in Nigeria’s capital Abuja on August 2, 2023, four days to the expiration of the seven-day ultimatum given by ECOWAS to the Nigerien Junta to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, this second meeting would be a follow-up to the Abuja extraordinary summit which directed the regional defence chiefs to be on stand-by, should the diplomatic option fail.
However, THEWILL investigation shows that member states’ readiness in terms of mobilisation, finance and support for the envisaged military option may prove challenging.
A recent report commissioned by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group and the Open Society Initiative for West Africa, OSIWA, showed “that Nigeria and 10 other ECOWAS countries are currently in distress, based on a debt sustainability analysis.
“The 10 other countries are Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.
The report, titled ‘Debt Management, Restricting and Sustainability in ECOWAS’, showed that, “11 ECOWAS countries – Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo – are currently in debt distress. However, the remaining four countries – Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali and Sierra Leone – are at low risk of debt distress.
“We also find that a financial catastrophe caused by a debt crisis in one country may spread throughout the region. Nigeria’s financial woes, in particular, portend a serious threat to other countries in the region,” the report concluded.
For the Chairman of ECOWAS and President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, the challenge is stark.
Following the sudden reaction of ECOWAS leaders to the coup plotters through the issuance of an ultimatum to the junta to restore President Bazoum to power, President Tinubu as Chairman of the regional bloc on August 4, wrote to the Senate but failed to get its support for request for military build -up and deployment of personnel for military intervention to enforce compliance of the military junta in Niger, should they remain recalcitrant.
Other request like cutting off electricity supply to Niger Republic; mobilising international support for the implementation of the provisions of the ECOWAS communique; preventing the operation of commercial and special flights into and from Niger Republic; blockade of goods in transit to Niger especially from Lagos and eastern seaports; closure and monitoring of all land borders with Niger Republic and reactivation of the border drilling exercise, sailed through.
“Tinubu is being forced to become a puppet of the West to protect conspiratorial Western interest and this is not good for what he stands for,” Professor Bola Akinterinwa, former Director-General of Nigeria Institute for International Affairs, NIIA, told THEWILL in a brief interview on Friday, regarding the military intervention being considered by ECOWAS leaders.
He added, “The President’s foreign policy is to defend Nigeria. He must not accept that conspiracy to undermine Nigeria. Being President of Nigeria confers on him the power to lead the most populous country in Africa and black people all over the world. He must see himself in that perspective and not that of ECOWAS which is a supra-national organisation to which every country delegates a fraction of its sovereignty.”
For the current president and director-general of the Bolytag Centre for International Diplomacy and Strategic Studies, diplomacy is the only viable option Tinubu must support because unlike Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea which are under military rule, Niger is composed of almost 80 per cent Hausa- Fulani, which make the neighbouring country look like another northern Nigeria. “ECOWAS interest must not trump Nigeria’s interests,” he said.
PECULIAR CONNECTION BETWEEN NIGER AND NIGERIA
One of the strong points that nailed Tinubu’s requests before the Senate was the interconnectedness between Nigeria and Niger, which is geographically situated on top of Nigeria. The ancestral, cultural and social-political connection was aptly demonstrated by former President Muhammadu Buhari.
During Buhari’s 2019 campaign re-election bid, four state governors from Niger Republic crossed the border between both countries into Kaduna, dressed in the governing All Progressives Congress, APC, white/green uniform and joined the former president’s campaign train.
While commissioning the Katsina to Maradi (Niger) railway line in 2021, Buhari said the aim for constructing the line was to ease transportation in Niger. Moreover, many Nigerians, as confirmed by former Katsina governor, Aminu Bello Masari, following terror attacks, relocated to Nigerien towns where they own houses and come to work in many Nigeria cities and towns in border states, such as Katsina, Sokoto, Kebbi, Jigawa, Yobe and Zamfara.
In fact, Tinubu’s meeting with the governors of these states recently highlighted their interconnectedness with Nigeriens.
THEWILL recalls that on the eve of his departure from the Presidential Villa, Buhari said he would relocate to Niger if politicians failed to let him be after vacating office.
“I believe that all Nigeriens are Nigerians and they are brothers and will continue to be brothers. It has never been heard or said that war should happen between them.
“But you know I am a Tinubu supporter and I like democracy because it enables human beings to live in peace and harmony, so I support resolution of the Niger impasse through dialogue, not war,” elder statesman, Tanko Yakassai, who was presidential adviser to late President Shehu Shagari, told THEWILL on Friday, The point, said Akinterinwa, is that Professor Agboola Gambari, former UN diplomat and Chief of Staff to Buhari, has a theory on foreign policy, which says that Nigeria’s security is intertwined with the security of her immediate neighbours. Therefore, Nigeria’s immediate neighbour constitutes an inner circle of circles. If we were to wage war against Niger, we would be fighting ourselves. Then consider the humanitarian crisis that could follow. It is unimaginable.”
Akinterinwa narrated an experience he had while carrying out research for a book that took him by road through many states in Northern Nigeria and he found out that, “empirically the border between Niger and Nigeria exists on paper unlike what you have between Nigeria and Cameroon, with Benin and with Chad.”
It is for these reasons “to protect ordinary peoples’ rights,” that Akinterinwa joined a consortium of right activists to lodge a complaint in ECOWAS Court through their counsel, Kayode Ajulo and Co Castle of Law last Wednesday.
For former Nigerian Ambassador to the Philippines, Dr Yomi Farounbi, it is a pity that Nigeria had to rush into making and supporting measures that undermined her relationship with Niger.
Speaking with THEWILL on the impasse in Niger, on Friday, Farounbi said, “It is a pity. I think diplomacy must start first before you begin the war because even at the end of the war, you still have to bring diplomacy and discussion. I thought that ECOWAS had not exhausted all available resources to diplomatically solve the problem.”
Arguing that ECOWAS leaders did not understand the reality of the problem in Niger before taking certain decisions, he submitted that the regional leaders should have studied developments in Niger Republic very well “to know whether there are viable and credible opposition,” the level of judiciary independence and fairness, as well as the assertive and proactive nature of the legislators.
“In fact, that the common man on the streets in Niger has started to rejoice over the coup is an indication of the failure of the civilian government.
“So, you have to understand the place very well. When you empathise with them, it will be easier to negotiate.
“But when you rush with a deadline and a threat and in the process of that you even break diplomatic rule. Like for example there is an agreement between Nigeria and Niger since 1964 to supply Nigeriens with electricity so that they will not dam the upper stream of River Niger and therefore make our dam in Kanji inefficient and ineffective. But you cancelled the agreement
without any consultation. In my view, you have just begun to fight the war of another country.”
Attempts to get reactions from the presidency failed as the Special Adviser to the President on Media, Mr Ajuri Ngelale, failed to answer calls put through to his phone. Neither did he reply to messages delivered sent to his phone.
THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION COMPLICATING MATTERS, FORCING NIGERIA’S HAND
The strong undercurrents driving the Nigerien stalemate to war as the junta there has dug in by appointing a 21-man cabinet after it had broken diplomatic ties with former colonial master France, the United States of America, Togo and Nigeria on the heels of international pressure, is said to be gas and uranium. Apart from Russia and Kazakhstan, both of which have large quantities of Uranium, Niger is said to supply 40 per cent of European consumption.
The ongoing Russo-Ukraine war has reportedly changed the equation and the importance of uranium mineral and gas supplies to Europe, hence the importance to Europe of the Nigeria-Algeria gas pipeline project passing through Niger, which was revived during the ongoing war in Ukraine as an alternative to supplies from Russia after the Nordstream gas pipeline from Russia to Europe was blown up by saboteurs and supplies from America, which rose to fill the gap in supply, is becoming more expensive.
From Algeria, the gas pipeline links the Trans-Mediterranean-Maghreb-Gaisi pipeline to Europe.
This scenario has widened the interests, allies and parties beating the drums of war in Niger.
WAY OUT FOR NIGERIA
Stakeholders in Nigeria from the governors of the states bordering Niger to the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria, Senators from northern Nigeria, Nigerian Muslim Leaders and the Nigerian Guild of Editors, to mention a few, agree that negotiations are the only option and it must be explored every inch the way. which the ECOWAS leader last Thursday listed as one the options.
“Military intervention is out of the question,” said Akinterinwa, “Continued negotiations and finding a way to pacify the coup plotters is best. ECOWAS leaders should not confuse recognition of the government with recognition of the people. They are quarrelling with the government in power different from the state of Niger. Their relationship with Niger is critical to the survival of ECOWAS. Now that Nigeriens have risen in support of the Junta, you cannot remove the government forcefully without having problems with the people. The Junta can be persuaded to organise fresh elections and a time-table worked out with them.”
Former Chief Whip of the Senate, Orji Uzor Kalu agrees with Akinterinwa. In a statement on Friday, titled, “Tinubu Is Nigeria’s President, Not ECOWAS,” the one-time governor of Abia State said, “Niger Republic is in our backyard and Nigeria should not join ECOWAS’ plan of military invasion.
“Nigeria, U.S. and France can intervene in Niger by giving them between one year and six months to hand over to a new government. If ECOWAS will cost Nigeria the peace it needs, there is nothing wrong with pulling out of ECOWAS. Nigeria is a sovereign nation and the concerns of its people matter most.”
About the Author
Amos Esele is the Deputy Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
