November 9, (THEWILL) – As political parties intensify efforts to secure the North’s enormous electoral support ahead of the 2027 General Election, SAM DIALA examines the contradiction between the region’s formidable voting strength and its crushing poverty, arguing that the North risks becoming a permanent reservoir of electoral numbers rather than a driver of national prosperity.
Nigeria’s Northern region occupies a curious and deeply troubling position in the country’s political and socio-economic equation. It possesses one of the most formidable electoral assets in the federation, with an estimated 56.01 million registered voters, representing 54.2 per cent of the country’s 103.43 million registered voters. Yet, beneath this impressive political arithmetic lies an uncomfortable development reality: approximately 86 million people in the region live in multidimensional poverty, accounting for 65 per cent of Nigeria’s entire multidimensionally poor population, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The contradiction raises a fundamental question about the meaning and usefulness of political power: what is the value of commanding more than half of Nigeria’s registered electorate when millions of the people whose votes constitute that advantage remain trapped in poverty, educational deprivation, poor healthcare, insecurity and limited economic opportunities? More importantly, what has the North achieved with its enormous electoral influence, and why has this political advantage not translated into commensurate improvements in the socioeconomic conditions of its people?
The figures present a paradox that should provoke serious reflection among political leaders, traditional institutions, policymakers, development partners and the region’s influential political establishment.
The North is not short of political relevance. Indeed, its numerical strength makes it indispensable to virtually every serious presidential electoral calculation. But political relevance and socioeconomic advancement are two different things. While the former is measured through electoral numbers, the latter is reflected in productive capacity, literacy, life expectancy, household incomes, industrialisation, infrastructure and the ability of citizens to live dignified lives.
Unfortunately, the region’s development indicators suggest a troubling disconnect between these two measures of influence.
And as nations increasingly deploy technology, innovation, industrial capacity, human capital and sophisticated economic policies to accelerate development, the North risks falling further behind if it continues to measure its political importance primarily through the number of votes it can deliver.
The troubling arithmetic of political power and poverty
The latest electoral figures reported ahead of the 2027 general election indicate that the three northern geopolitical zones account for 56.01 million registered voters out of Nigeria’s 103.43 million electorate. The North-West alone accounts for approximately 25.08 million, followed by the North-Central with 16.97 million and the North-East with 13.97 million. The figures underscore the region’s enormous influence in determining the country’s political direction.
However, the electoral advantage becomes less impressive when juxtaposed with the findings of the NBS 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), which established that 133 million Nigerians were living in multidimensional poverty, with 86 million of them residing in the North.
The report, developed in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, was based on a survey of more than 56,000 households conducted between November 2021 and February 2022. It identified substantial deprivation in education, healthcare, living standards, sanitation, nutrition, housing and access to basic services.
There is an important qualification to the comparison. The 56.01 million figure represents registered voters, not actual votes cast, while the 86 million poverty figure comes from the 2022 multidimensional poverty survey, not a new 2026 headcount. The two figures therefore describe different populations and periods. Nevertheless, together they expose the scale of the region’s political weight and development challenge. The implication is significant. A region that constitutes the largest electoral constituency in the country should arguably possess sufficient political leverage to demand and secure sustained investment in education, healthcare, agriculture, infrastructure, industrialisation and employment.
Yet, the persistence of widespread deprivation raises questions about how effectively that leverage has been deployed.Political leaders across the region have occupied strategic positions in Nigeria’s political establishment for decades. The North has produced presidents, vice-presidents, Senate presidents, ministers, governors, legislators and influential political actors who have participated in national decision-making. Nevertheless, the region continues to record some of the country’s most troubling development indicators. This suggests that the challenge is not necessarily the absence of political representation but the inability to convert political representation into sustainable economic and social outcomes.
Human capital: The foundation of the missing development revolution
Perhaps nowhere is the North’s development crisis more evident than in education and human capital.
According to UNICEF, Nigeria has approximately 10.5 million children aged five to 14 outside school, while the northern region records a particularly low net school attendance rate of 53 per cent.
The situation is especially troubling for girls in the North-East and North-West, where primary-school attendance rates are significantly below national aspirations. UNICEF identifies poverty, economic barriers, sociocultural practices and insecurity as important factors contributing to educational exclusion.
The consequences extend far beyond the immediate inability of children to acquire formal education. An inadequately educated population is less equipped to participate in a modern economy increasingly driven by digital technology, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, financial services, scientific research and sophisticated agricultural production. In an era when countries are investing heavily in technical education, research, innovation and workforce development, millions of children in Northern Nigeria remain disconnected from the educational foundations required to participate meaningfully in these emerging opportunities.
This creates an intergenerational poverty trap
Children who do not receive quality education are more likely to enter adulthood with limited employment prospects, low earning capacity and little access to productive economic opportunities. Their own children may subsequently inherit similar disadvantages, perpetuating poverty across generations.
The World Bank’s February 2026 human capital report provides an alarming indication of the economic implications.According to the institution, Nigeria’s existing deficits in health, education and workforce skills are costing the country an estimated 111 per cent of future labour earnings. The report also indicates that increasing effective years of schooling to 12 could raise Nigerians’ labour earnings by approximately 20 per cent over the long term.
World Bank Chief Economist for People, Norbert Schady, argues that improving nutrition, learning and workforce skills can generate a virtuous cycle in which rising productivity produces higher wages and stronger incentives for families to invest in the next generation.
For the North, this is particularly consequential. A region with millions of young people should theoretically possess a significant demographic advantage. However, population becomes an economic asset only when supported by education, healthcare, skills, employment opportunities and the infrastructure required to convert human potential into productive output.
Otherwise, a large youthful population can become an enormous socioeconomic liability.
Vice-President Kashim Shettima acknowledged this challenge at the Northern Nigeria Human Capital Development Summit in June 2026, where he called for urgent investment in education, healthcare and skills development.
He observed that no part of Nigeria had paid a higher price for inadequate human capital development than Northern Nigeria.
His observation is particularly significant because it recognises that the region’s development challenges cannot be resolved through political mobilisation or periodic intervention programmes alone.
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Poverty, insecurity and the dangerous cycle of underdevelopment
Beyond education, insecurity has become one of the most formidable obstacles to the North’s economic transformation.
Insurgency in the North-East, banditry and kidnapping in the North-West, and persistent herder attack on farmers in parts of the North-Central have weakened economic activities, disrupted agricultural production, displaced communities and undermined investment.
Agriculture, which remains a major source of livelihood for millions of northern households, has been particularly affected.
Farmers who cannot safely access their land cannot produce at optimal capacity. Livestock owners operating under insecurity face restrictions on movement and market access. Traders and transport operators contend with dangerous routes, while businesses face additional costs arising from disrupted supply chains and inadequate security.
The result is a vicious cycle in which insecurity destroys livelihoods, poverty deepens vulnerability, and the absence of economic opportunities makes communities more susceptible to further instability.
The Chronic Poverty Advisory Network, in its July 2026 study on Insecurity, Livelihoods, and Welfare in Northern Nigeria, highlights how violence affects household welfare through displacement, asset losses, restricted economic activities and disrupted markets.
The researchers, Vidya Diwakar, Judith-Ann Walker and Kareem Abdulrasaq, emphasise the importance of livelihood diversification, education, financial inclusion, asset accumulation and stronger market connectivity in helping households withstand insecurity and escape poverty.
Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani, has similarly linked poverty and unemployment to insecurity in the region.
Speaking on Channels Television in May 2025, he described insecurity as largely an economic issue, arguing that poverty and unemployment make vulnerable young people susceptible to recruitment by armed groups.
He also identified deficits in infrastructure, education and healthcare as underlying contributors to the problem.
His position reinforces an important development argument: military operations alone cannot resolve a crisis whose roots are partly embedded in economic exclusion.
The implication is that the North cannot achieve sustainable security without economic development, just as it cannot achieve meaningful economic development without security. The two are mutually reinforcing.
The opportunity cost of political mobilisation
One of the most disturbing dimensions of the North’s development challenge is the disproportionate attention often devoted to electoral calculations compared with long-term socioeconomic planning.
As the 2027 elections approach, the region’s 56 million registered voters have become a major consideration in the political strategies of parties and presidential aspirants. Political negotiations, alliances, endorsements, campaign mobilisation and calculations about electoral performance are increasingly framed around the North’s numerical advantage.
There is nothing inherently wrong with political mobilisation. In a democracy, electoral participation is an important instrument of accountability and public choice.
The concern, however, is whether the region’s political establishment is deploying its influence to secure measurable development commitments or simply negotiating political relevance through electoral numbers.
If 56 million registered voters can generate intense competition among political parties, should the same political weight not generate equally intense competition among governments to improve schools, hospitals, roads, agricultural productivity and employment opportunities?
Should northern political leaders not be demanding verifiable development targets from governments seeking their electoral support?
For instance, the region could collectively insist on measurable improvements in school enrolment, girls’ education, maternal mortality, childhood nutrition, access to electricity, agricultural yields, industrial investment and youth employment.
It could also demand transparent reporting of federal capital expenditure in northern states and stronger accountability for development funds allocated to state and local governments.
The central issue is not whether the North should exercise its political influence. Rather, it is whether that influence is producing tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary citizens.
A political constituency that can determine the direction of national leadership should also be capable of demanding a development agenda that addresses its most pressing needs.
The global development race and the risk of being left behind
The North’s predicament becomes even more troubling when considered against the changing character of the global economy.
Across the world, countries are investing in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductor manufacturing, renewable energy, digital infrastructure, advanced logistics, research and development, and high-productivity agriculture.
The competition is increasingly about the capacity to produce, innovate, attract investment, develop skills and participate in global value chains.
Countries such as China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia have pursued different development strategies, but their experiences demonstrate the importance of linking human capital development with infrastructure, industrialisation, technology and productive employment.
China’s manufacturing expansion, India’s technology and digital-services ecosystem, and Vietnam’s integration into global manufacturing supply chains illustrate how sustained investment in skills, infrastructure and productive capacity can reshape economic prospects.
Northern Nigeria, meanwhile, possesses considerable economic opportunities that remain underexploited.
Its agricultural potential is enormous. The region has substantial land resources, livestock populations, solid mineral deposits, opportunities for renewable energy, and a large consumer market.
It also occupies strategic geographical positions that could support regional trade with neighbouring West African countries.
With appropriate investments, the North could become a major centre for agro-industrial processing, livestock development, textiles, food manufacturing, renewable energy and logistics.
However, these opportunities cannot be realised without addressing the structural weaknesses undermining the region’s productive capacity.
Farmers require irrigation, improved seeds, mechanisation, storage facilities, access to finance and reliable markets. Manufacturers need electricity, transport infrastructure, security and predictable regulation. Young people need quality education, technical training and access to employment.
Above all, private investors need confidence that their investments will not be undermined by insecurity, inadequate infrastructure or unpredictable policy environments.
Without these foundations, the region’s vast population and natural resources will remain largely untapped.
Sam Diala is a Bloomberg Certified Financial Journalist with over a decade of experience in reporting Business and Economy. He is Business Editor at THEWILL Newspaper, and believes that work, not wishes, creates wealth.
