July 24, (THEWILL) – By AMOS ESELE with additional report from AYO ESAN
The concept of a third force in Nigerian politics began to gain ground in 2019, when a rising tide of non-performance by the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) started dominating public perception.
In 2022, nine months to the 2023 general election, a month to the national conventions of the 18 registered political parties and a few months to two off-season governorship elections in Ekiti State on June 18 and in Osun State on July 16, a group known as The National Consultative Forum formally announced the formation of a third force on May 22.
According to Bilikis Bello, Communication Executive of NCFront, in a statement titled, ‘At Last! Labour Party Emerge as the Third Force Mega Party for 2023,’ it took a 15-month interaction among stakeholders, comprising the President of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Ayuba Wabba; President of the Trade Union Congress (TUC), Quadri Olaleye and leaders of political parties, such as Prof Attahiru Jega of the Peoples Redemption Party, Prof Pat Utomi of the Labour Party and Senator Saidu Dansadau of the National Rescue Movement, to birth the ‘Force’.
“With the adoption of the Labour Party as our ‘3rd Force’ Mega Party penultimate week, the NCFront has since commenced the fusion of its structures of over 20 million members and supporters nationwide into the Labour Party.
“Consequently, our teeming members all over Nigeria and in Diaspora have been directed to register immediately as members of the Labour Party at all designated registration centres, both online and physically at the Ward Levels, to be able to take part in the ongoing electoral programmes of the Party for the 2023 elections.
“Furthermore, the ‘3rd Force’ Mega Electoral Pact is proposed around agreement on labour charter of demand, EndSars youths demands and constitutional referendum for Nigeria, among others to be agreed as terms of the Alliance for the 2023 elections,” Bello said.
Twenty million members and supporters across the country?
EKITI AND OSUN POLLS AS TEST CASES
The test for Bello’s claim of membership strength came during the final two off-season governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states, a few weeks after Mr Peter Obi emerged presidential candidate of Labour Party on May 30 in Asaba, the Delta State capital.
In Ekiti, the Labour Party’s candidate, Comrade Roland Olugbenga Daramola, was unseen and unheard before the election. Out of the 16 governorship candidates, he was even unavailable during campaigns and during the voting, LP was noticeable for having no agents standing in for the party across polling units in the state. This lack of presence was explained away because the party as a ‘third force’ was barely a month-old.
A month later, the story remained the same in the Osun poll. LP’s candidate, Yussuf Lasun, was former Deputy Speaker in the House of Representatives. Unlike Ekiti, he campaigned vigorously and two days to the close of campaigns on Friday, Obi led the party’s bigwigs to Osun to drum up support for him.
He came a distant fourth. Out of the total number of 804, 450 votes cast, Lasun polled 2,729, trailing the candidate of the Action Democratic Party (ADP), Kehinde Atanda, who polled 10,104 votes; Akinade Ogunbiyi of Accord, who got 4,515 votes; and the winner, Ademola Adeleke of the PDP, who polled 403,371 votes to defeat incumbent Governor Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who scored 375,027 votes.
In fact, Lasun was in the same league with Awojide Segun of Action Alliance Congress (ACC), who polled 2,148 votes; Ademola Adeseye of Young Peoples Party (YPP) with 1,303 votes; Awoyemi Lukuman, African Peoples Movement, APM who got 1,222 votes; and Ayowole Adedeji of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), who polled 1,007 votes.
For Obi, the election was not a verdict on the LP’s “exponentially growing strength,” but it underscored the need for Nigerians not to relent in the collective resolve to take back their country. “We are barely one month old and have to contend with powers that have been on the ground for decades.”
That may be arguable. In 2014, the APC, arising from a merger of four legacy parties in February 2013, was barely a year-old when the Osun poll took place. The party’s candidate and incumbent governor, Rauf Aregbesola, won the election and boosted the new party’s image and launched it to national prominence.
Osun State LP chairman of the party, Prince Adebayo Bello, however, agrees with the party’s presidential candidate.
He told THEWILL on Friday: “You cannot compare what happened in the Osun election with what is going to happen at the national election. Our candidate was a major and popular candidate. He was the man to beat in terms of campaign but lost to the power of vote inducement. Yet, his campaign has made the Labour Party a household name in Osun and we are going ahead to build the party at the ward and local government level ahead of the 2023 elections. Because of the way he popularised the party the ‘ObiDient’ Movement now has a structure in the state.’’
His Ekiti counterpart concurs with his submission. According to Barrister Okunade Odunayo, in a brief interview with THEWILL, “the people are now realising what we were telling them about the need to vote for credible candidates and party now that the NLC and TUC will be embarking on protests next week. They have realised that the vote selling for a pot of soup cannot lead to solving the problems of poverty and unemployment. I was in Osun for the campaigns. Like we did in Ekiti, we campaigned from house to house. The awareness of the people about LP has been raised so much that I can confidently tell you that Obi will win in 2023.”
But one of Obi’s rivals for the plum job in the land and presidential candidate of the PDP, Atiki Abubakar, ridicules the idea.
“Peter Obi is not a threat. I really don’t expect the Labour Party to take as many votes from the PDP as people are suggesting. We could have seen it in the last election in Osun State. What was the performance of the Labour Party?” he said, in an interview last week with ARISE television.
“They (Obi’s supporters) are talking about social media. Mind you, in the North, 90 per cent of our people (who will be voting) are not on social media. This party does not have a governor, does not have members in the State Houses of Assembly. And politics in this country depends on structures you have at various levels and at the national level. It is difficult for a miracle to happen simply because Obi is in the Labour Party.”
For many APC stalwarts, PDP’s defeat of the governing party still does not reduce them to the same level as LP or make the party popular in the state. They trace their defeat to many factors, including the crisis within the party arising from disagreements among aggrieved chieftains, overbearing influence of some founding fathers in the state.
OBI’S POPULARITY AS DRIVING FORCE
There is no doubt that since he became the LP standard bearer in the 2023 presidential poll, Obi has not only popularised LP, he is almost synonymous with the party as far as the 2023 general election is concerned.
Obioma Dan, a chieftain of the LP said: “The most potent ground force propelling this hurricane-like movement (ObiDient) remains the character, pedigree, records and achievements of Obi and not necessarily his party. He is giving meaning and followership to the LP.
“Unfortunately, Obi was not on the ballot paper in Osun, rather an unknown Yusuf Lasun, who battled against very highly entrenched political heavy weights, including his political godfathers.’’
Going forward, the LP in fielding candidates whose character, integrity, records, profile, political philosophy, achievements have corresponding symmetry with those of Obi and at the same time, it should square up with the political strength/weight of other contesting party candidates. This is the easiest way to evaluate and align the common vision and attract more sympathy cum votes to the young and enterprising and rapidly advancing party.
March Oyinchi, National Director of Movement for Change Worldwide, one of the 21 approved groups that formed the Coalition for Peter Obi (CPO), said that apart from giving life to LP, Obi is the most visible face of the party for now.
“But when the campaign starts, other big wigs will join the bandwagon to push the party to the 2023 destination,” he told THEWILL on Friday.
Explaining the level of coordination and grassroots impact recorded by the movement so far, he used the work that his organisation has done in eight states in the South-South and South-East geo-political zones with ongoing work in Oyo and Ogun states, as examples.
“In Bayelsa State where I am now (on Friday), we have 370 CPOs networking in all the eight Local governments. We have Diaspora chapters, which also help to sensitise their people back home, apart from providing material support. Campaign is yet to start. For now, it is only networking and getting people to get their Permanent Voter Cards, PVCs,” Oyinchi added.
Ekiti chairman, Odunayo, adds his voice. “The big wigs you are talking about will soon come out. They are still underground now because of the security situation in the country.”
Confirming the growing strength of the ‘third force,’ and its likely chances in the 2023 election, a delegation from the United States-based National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute (NDIIRI) said on Friday that Obi and former Kano Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, constitute a real force in the upcoming general election in 2023. According to them, the 2023 elections would be a departure from some of the political dynamics that defined previous polls in Nigeria.
The delegation of the NDI/IRI, which visited Nigeria from July 13-22 and led by the Secretary of State for Ohio, Frank LaRose, made this disclosure while presenting its first joint pre-election assessment statement to journalists in Abuja on Friday.
They said: “The 2023 elections are a departure from some of the political dynamics that defined previous polls. For the first time since 2007, the presidential election will be an open contest with no incumbent.
“The ruling All Progressives Congress selected former Lagos governor, Bola Tinubu, as its flagbearer. Former Vice President and 2019 presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, will contest on the ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party.
“However, the emergence of Peter Obi — former Anambra State governor and presidential candidate for the Labour Party — and Rabiu Kwankwaso — former Kano governor and presidential candidate for the New Nigeria People’s Party — as viable “Third Forces” has excited many young Nigerians. If a third party draws sufficient support, a runoff presidential election could be a real possibility for the first time since the transition to democracy, adding complexity to the 2023 elections.”
National Chairman of LP, Julius Abure and flagbearer, Obi, refused to pick their calls when THEWILL called them on Friday.
Attempts to get reaction from the National Publicity Secretary of the APC, Felix Morka, also failed as he refused to answer the phone call made to him.
YOU’RE STRETCHING THE ARGUMENT TOO FAR – PDP
His PDP counterpart, Debo Ologunagba, however thinks referencing LP as a third force to contend with in the upcoming general election is stretching the argument too far. He told THEWILL that structure, a euphemism for party representatives in terms of governors, lawmakers and local government chairmen, matters a great deal.
“I know for any party to win an election, it must have structure. The outcome of the Osun governorship election should actually determine for us whether the Labour Party can actually be described as a Third Force. LP got just a little above 2000 votes in the Osun poll. If you want to assess it on the basis of that performance, can you say that it is a Third Force? This is a party that has no structure. Politics is about structure from the national to the lowest unit. This is a party with no national assembly member, no governor, no local government chairman. You cannot build something on nothing. Labour is a party, but to say it is a third force, no. The results from the recent off-season elections did not portray it as such.”
WE’LL WIN 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – LP
But the spokesperson of Obi, Mr Valentine Obienyen, disagrees with the views expressed by Ologunagba . For him, Labour and Obi are going to win the 2023 presidential election. He told THEWILL in a brief interview, Saturday morning, that, “from what is happening in Nigeria today and going by the Peter Obi’s antecedents compared with that of the other presidential contestants, it is a clear win for Obi.”
Expatiating further, he said that from field reports, “Obi is the most accepted candidate in Nigeria today,” arguing that the performance of the party in Ekiti and Osun governorship polls cannot be used as a test case for what would happen at the national election.
APC NOT LOSING SLEEP OVER ‘THIRD FORCE’ – CHIEFTAIN
For a chieftain of the APC, and Director General of Voice of Nigeria, Osita Okechukwu, the governing party is not losing sleep over the growing impact of the “Third Force’ and Labour Party, though he recognises LP’s growing presence in the polity.
He told THEWILL: “We are not threatened at all because there are about 180,000 polling units in the country and we are the main party, covering all the nooks and crannies of our dear country. The Labour Party is yet to cover such mileage. But we must thank Peter Obi and his OBIdient movement for their innovation. One, they will knock off PDP from their traditional electoral base. This gives the PDP goose pimples.
Secondly, the OBIdient movement has captured the imagination of our youths who were hitherto despondent and almost hopeless and luckily made them think positively about Nigeria . One sincerely commends them for this feat. Even if the movement didn’t achieve anything, they have already achieved something for the Nigerian State. It is not easy to capture the imagination of our cynical youths. Now they are talking of the President of Nigeria, and on behalf of APC, we promise to sustain their hopes with good governance. I appreciate them but we are not threatened, for we have the number – 22 governors and majority in the national and state Assembly.”
OBI MAY WIN THE FIRST BALLOT – DON
Professor Yakubu Ochefu, an economic historian and Secretary of the Committee of Vice-Chancellors of Nigeria thinks the “major political parties need not only to worry but to expect major upsets by the Third Force presented by LP since Obi became its presidential candidate.”
Speaking to THEWILL, he said the commitment of the youths pushing the ‘ObiDient Movement’, shows that the demography in the 2023 general elections will be different.
He said; “Given the increasing awareness of the youths and their readiness to mobilize across the country, rushing to get their PVCs and focus on making a change of leadership presented by Obi is something to watch out for. So far, the two major political parties which have dominated the political space for over 20 years do not seem to present anything different from the policies and programmes they implemented while in office. Moreover, they are plagued by crises that reflect their old, uninspiring ways of doing things. This is also causing disaffection among a wider spectrum of eligible voters who see the “Third Force” as a viable alternative.”
Ochefu seems to agree with the NDI/IRI delegation report as he maintained that given the public disenchantment of the major parties, the electronic transmission of results and ongoing mobilisation by the OBIdient movement, Obi may win in the first ballot or force a rerun as the NDI/IRI has said.
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