May 6, (THEWILL)- Fitch Ratings has upgraded Nigeria’s credit rating outlook from stable to positive, saying the new rating partly reflects significant reforms by President Bola Tinubu to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence.
It affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at B-.
THEWILL reports that the new rating is coming exactly six months after Fitch had on November 3, 2023, rated Nigeria’s credit outlook stable and said reform progress since President Bola Tinubu came to power in May 2023 was faster than it anticipated.
In a statement on Friday, Fitch said the revision of the outlook reflects the following key drivers and their relative weights:
“Significant Reform: The Positive Outlook partly reflects reforms over the last year to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility. Exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks have been adjusted, fuel subsidies reduced, coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) improved, Central Bank financing of the government scaled back and administrative efficiency measures are being taken to raise the currently low government revenue, as well as oil production.
“Distortions Reduced: The reforms have reduced distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies, resulting in the return of sizable inflows to the official foreign exchange (FX) market. Nevertheless, we see significant short-term challenges, notably, inflation is high and the FX market has yet to stabilise, and the durability of the commitment to reform is to be tested.
“Exchange Rate Liberalisation: The CBN has stepped up efforts to reform the monetary and exchange rate framework following last year’s unification of the multiple exchange rate windows, and the large differential between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed. Average daily FX turnover at the official FX window has risen sharply from 2H23, and there has been clearance of USD4.5 billion of the backlog of unpaid FX forwards (the validity of the outstanding USD2.2 billion is being assessed by CBN), and weekly sales of FC to bureau de changes (BDCs) have resumed (having been suspended since 2021).
“Return of Sizeable Non-Resident Inflows: Greater formalisation of FX activity and monetary policy tightening has contributed to a significant rise in foreign portfolio investment inflows, and a fast appreciation of the naira at the official FX window, following the 71% post-liberalisation depreciation between June 2023 and mid-March 2024, although the exchange rate remains volatile. However, Fitch views the continued lack of clarity in the size of net FX reserves as a constraint on the sovereign’s credit profile.
“Further Monetary Policy Tightening Expected: Fitch anticipates further increases in the CBN monetary policy rate in 2H24 (following the 600bp hike to 24.75% since February 2024 alongside tightening of reserve requirements) and strengthening of monetary policy transmission, after the recent resumption of open market operations at rates closely aligned to the MPR. We project inflation, which rose to 33.2% yoy in March due partly to exchange rate pass-through and rising food prices, to an average of 26.3% in 2024 and 18.2% in 2025, still well above our projected ‘B’ median of 4.5%.
“Fiscal Revenue Improves, Still Low: Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen 0.3pp in 2024 to 4.5% of GDP (but 0.5pp lower than we projected at our last review). This is due to improving non-oil revenue and partial fuel subsidy removal being offset by underperformance in oil profits from Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (despite a potential improvement in oil production) and higher payments for debt servicing, personnel and capex.
“We project a 2pp rise in general government (GG) revenue/GDP from 2023 to 2025 to 9.6%, helped by increased mobilisation of non-oil tax revenue, to narrow the budget deficit to 4.1% in 2025. Nevertheless, the GG revenue/GDP ratio would remain one of the lowest of Fitch-rated sovereigns. The government has sharply reduced recourse to its CBN ‘Ways and Means’ overdraft this year, and banks’ healthy foreign currency (FC) liquidity and strong demand for government securities support domestic financing capacity.
“Improved Oil Production, Challenges Remain: We expect oil refining capacity to increase in 2024-2025 as the Dangote plant ramps up, with an eventual 0.65 mbpd capacity. This will reduce transportation costs and lower refined oil imports, which should ease FX demand. We anticipate an increase in crude oil production (including condensates) in 2024-2025, averaging 1.75 mbpd, from 1.58 mbpd in 2023, helped by improved onshore surveillance, but this is still well below the 2019 level, reflecting underinvestment in the sector and production outages.”
About the Author
Sam Diala is a Bloomberg Certified Financial Journalist with over a decade of experience in reporting Business and Economy. He is Business Editor at THEWILL Newspaper, and believes that work, not wishes, creates wealth.
